From Wednesday to Sunday, the People’s Liberation Army-Navy will conduct aggressive exercises in the Paracel Islands of the South China Sea. More than 180 miles from the closest Chinese territory, the islands are obviously in international waters.
China’s warning is that “during the period [of the exercise], no vessel shall be allowed to navigate [in the large training area and] all vessels have to follow the guidance of the commanding ship on site.” This is a clear breach of international law. The intent here is the same as that which motivates China to purge its Uighur population: the pursuit of absolute dominance bound to the threat of violence. While China’s warning here comes from its civilian maritime agency rather than the ministry of defense, this message has one overriding audience: the U.S. Navy.
Beijing is infuriated by the Navy’s escalating transits through these international waters. This U.S. action is necessary to encourage weaker regional nations that the United States will uphold the principle that international waters are open to any and all and cannot be claimed by one. A fundamental principle, that is, of the international system that has provided unparalleled peace, prosperity, and democratic advancement since 1945.
On the reverse side, as much as this exercise is designed to improve China’s naval readiness (and likely also its aircraft carrier competency), this exercise seeks to formalize Beijing’s claim to the Paracel Islands. Chinese President Xi Jinping knows that by conducting this exercise without U.S. interference, he can intimidate the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, which China believes should never set sail without its permission. Considering the rich energy and fishing interests in these waters and that China claims the entirety of the South China Sea under its utterly absurd “nine-dash line” map, this is no small issue. China is already happy to send warships and fishing pirates right into these nations’ sovereign waters.
But nor is this a concern simply for these nations.
After all, approximately $3.5 trillion in goods transits the South China Sea each year. Xi knows that if he can establish a unilateral China customs zone over these waters, he’ll be able to extort political concessions from the rest of the world. China’s control over these waters would empower it to demand, for example, that Europe allow its Huawei surveillance service into their 5G networks, that South Korea should reduce its cooperation with America, and that African nations continue accepting China’s mafia-style investments.
The U.S. Navy should respond by sending warships through the perimeter of the training no-go zone. It is critical that Xi be put on the spot every time he attempts to change the rules of the international game. The stakes here reverberate far beyond some random islands and distant waters. The U.S. should also strengthen regional partners and redouble its increasingly successful effort to persuade more nations to join in its freedom of navigation exercises — Australia, Britain, France (forget Germany), the Philippines, India, and Vietnam stand out here.
But let’s be clear about what’s going on. China is trying to do in the Indo-Pacific what Imperial Japan did in the 1930s. As the Chinese Communist Party’s appetite and arrogance grow, so also will its desires. A line must be drawn straight through the middle of the nine-dash line.
