Democrats will be fully in charge of state government in Minnesota come January.
Following Tuesday’s election, majorities in the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party will control both the state House and Senate, as well as the offices of governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor.
That hasn’t happened since 2014.
The recent years of divided government in Minnesota — most significantly between the House, Senate and governor’s office — have meant that changes in state policy have generally been incremental. Countless ideas from either side have failed to garner enough bipartisan support to be adopted, and even bipartisan plans have fallen victim to the raw politics that result when each side stymies the other.
Much of that can change now — for DFL-backed ideas — since the Democrats won’t need a single Republican vote to make law. The lack of a Republican attorney general, for example, reduces the likelihood of potential roadblocks to the Democrats’ agenda from the other powers of state government, and no Republican-generated ideas can find a back door through the other constitutional offices.
Here’s what to expect for the next two years, and some things to watch for:
Can Democrats stay unified?
Democrats will have to stay unified to accomplish their priorities.
The DFL will hold the narrowest majority — a single seat, 34-33 — in the Senate.
The margin in the House looked to be slim as well Friday. If two potential recounts in two northeastern Minnesota districts don’t change the current outcomes, Democrats will hold a 70-64 majority. Not a lot of wiggle room.
That could be a challenge for the DFL, which historically has had to balance the positions of progressives from the Twin Cities, moderates from the suburbs, and members from Greater Minnesota, where mining, logging and farming interests often hold sway and sometimes are at odds with more liberal environmental policies, for example.
Republicans will look for any opportunity to peel off even single Democrat if it can mean blocking something they oppose, said incoming Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson, R-East Grand Forks, who was elected by his peers Thursday to succeed Senate Majority Leader Jeremy Miller, R-Winona.
Abortion, ERA
But there already appears to be a sense of inevitability for certain issues.
For example, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen, DFL-Edina, said Wednesday that she was certain her caucus is fully unified behind supporting abortion rights. Lopez Franzen, who did not seek re-election, will be succeeded by Sen. Kari Dziedzic, DFL-Minneapolis, who was elected Senate majority leader Thursday night by her colleagues.
That makes it likely that Minnesota will soon have abortion access, currently guaranteed by a Minnesota Supreme Court case, put into state law.
Expect a push for another initiative historically tied to women’s rights: ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment via a ballot question — a perennial DFL priority that has been blocked by Republicans for years.
Legalizing marijuana
Legalizing recreational marijuana use is another prospect with a bright future.
News broke Thursday that Gov. Tim Walz’s office had been in contact with former Gov. Jesse Ventura, a longtime proponent, on the matter. Walz and leaders of the DFL-controlled House, which will remain under the leadership of House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, have generally been on board with fully legalizing pot, but the GOP-controlled Senate hasn’t.
Gun control
Red-flag laws that make it easier for guns to be taken away from potentially dangerous people are likely to get a big push next year, as will an effort to expand the type of gun sales and transfers subject to background checks.
How far Democrats might go — such as creating a statewide gun registry or banning certain types of firearms altogether — remains to be seen.
Education spending, social programs
Expect Walz to propose a two-year budget that will seek to increase state funding for public schools — and expect Democrats to support at least the bulk of it. The idea that Democrats have supported is to try to offset the increased cost of services for students with special needs. Those services, which often include tutoring or extra staff time, are mandated by federal law but have never been fully funded federally or from the state, leaving the costs to be borne by local taxpayers.
Democrats have also said they plan to push for mandated paid family and sick leave, which could be funded through payroll taxes much like unemployment.
What about taxes?
Johnson on Thursday said a top Republican priority is “permanent and ongoing tax relief” — a mantra from the party during the previous two years.
There’s bipartisan support for this. Last year, Walz and leaders from both parties agreed on a plan that might have amounted to the largest tax cut in the history of the state. A cornerstone of the plan was eliminating the state income tax on Social Security benefits for higher earners. That deal, which fell apart amid election-year politicking, could still be adopted at any time.
It could be paid for — at least at first — from the state’s massive budget surplus, which is likely to be between $7 billion and $8 billion — although that could change if the economy changes significantly.
But things quickly get complicated when you start looking at taxes. Both parties want to claim victory for some measure to offset the higher costs Minnesotans are paying for necessities such as food and energy, and even Democrats haven’t rallied unanimously around one idea.
Walz, for example, said this week that he still likes the idea of sending rebate checks to all or most Minnesotans. Not all DFL lawmakers have been on board with that.
The surplus
Expect a pile of ideas from Democrats of all stripes on how to spend much of the budget surplus.
Many, including Walz, moderates and Republicans, will be pushing for money to hire more police officers. That was part of this year’s agreement. Both incoming GOP leaders — the Senate’s Johnson and incoming House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring — listed public safety as a top priority, but steered clear of discussing specific proposals.
However, how much money — and in exchange for what sorts of new restrictions and oversights of police — could become a thorny issue. The most progressive elements of the DFL, including the People of Color and Indigenous Caucus, which has a presence in both chambers, has been a passionate force in calling for sweeping changes to address racial disparities in law enforcement, especially police use of force against Black men.
Be patient
Don’t expect much of this to happen too quickly.
In theory, many stand-alone policy initiatives, such as the right to an abortion, could happen right out of the gate when the new Legislature convenes Jan. 3.
But if history is any guide in a year when the Legislature and governor are required to agree on a two-year balanced budget, don’t be surprised if lawmakers and Walz — even if they’re all in the same party — are haggling over details at midnight in the middle of May.
The Legislature adjourns May 22.
