In both of Mexico’s last two presidential elections, Julieta Brambila voted for Andrés Manuel López Obrador because she supported his plans to tackle corruption, curb poverty and overturn “neoliberal” economic policies.
Polls ahead of this Sunday’s vote suggest that the silver-haired left-winger is finally on the brink of victory, but Brambila admits to some mixed feelings over his surprisingly conservative positions on social issues.
“I agree with a good part of his policies on the economy, combatting corruption and security,” said Brambila, who is a trans woman and professor of communications. “But on issues like diversity, I don’t think he – or any candidate – has any proposals.”
López Obrador, known as Amlo, has built a commanding lead, capitalizing on growing frustration over political corruption and rising violence.
But social issues such as abortion and marriage equality have been secondary in the race, with all four male candidates seeking to appeal to an electorate craving change – but often showing an aversion to risk.
On the campaign trail, Amlo, 64, often speaks of faith and values. He has promised to draft a “moral constitution” but mostly dodged clear answers on social issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.
He has also forged an electoral alliance with a socially conservative party founded by evangelical Christians, which could end up claiming 10% of the seats in Congress.
“I don’t think rights will be rolled back [with an Amlo administration and conservatives in his congressional coalition]” Brambila said. “But progress is going to be more difficult.”
This year’s election comes after a well-funded “pro-family” lobby made an aggressive push into Mexico politics with a high-profile campaign against marriage equality.
Politicians of all stripes have sought support from Catholic priests, evangelical pastors and social conservatives
But Amlo’s positions on marriage equality and abortion have stirred disquiet among the LGBT community and women’s groups.
As mayor of Mexico City from 2000-2005, Amlo held off on promoting same-sex marriage and the decriminalisation of abortion – both of which were eventually introduced in the city by his successor, Marcelo Ebrard.
In a 2015 interview with W Radio he suggested that fighting poverty and graft were more important priorities for progressives: “The most important thing is honesty. [Decriminalizing abortion and marriage equality] – with total respect and authenticity, I consider it something not that important. What’s important in Mexico is that we end corruption.”
Some political observers say Amlo has appealed to “traditional” and religious values in an attempt to soften a radical image after accusations from opponents that he planned to turn Mexico into another Venezuela.
“It’s served to lower the resistance,” said Diego Petersen Farah, columnist with the Guadalajara newspaper El Informador.
Amlo’s party, the movement for national renewal, is better known by its acronym “Morena” – another name for the Mexico’s patron saint, Our Lady of Guadalupe. He announced his candidacy on her feast day, 12 December.
His exact religious affiliation – Catholic or Protestant – is the subject of speculation. But one journalist in his home state of Tabasco – where votive candles bearing his image sell briskly – says it’s a moot point.
“It’s not so much church with Andrés Manuel, rather ethics and ethical behaviour,” said Juan Urcola, who has interviewed Amlo often.
Amlo’s electoral coalition includes the Social Encounter Party (PES), which was founded by evangelical Christians and in 2016 voted against a presidential proposal to enshrine same-sex marriage in the constitution.
The PES president, Hugo Eric Flores, has previously said that marriage equality was “a fad”. In an interview, he promised tolerance, but also said: “We are in favour of the traditional family, and that’s not a bad thing to say so.”
Same-sex marriage is allowed in some Mexican states, though any couple can marry in any state so long as they first obtain a court injunction.
Abortion on demand is only legal in the country’s capital, but when Amlo’s campaign released a document on women’s issues, it omitted any mention of the subject.
In an interview, his pick for interior minister, former supreme court justice Olga Sánchez Cordero, promised that an Amlo administration would make abortion legal nationally by including it in an expanded federal criminal code.
But Amlo’s refusal to be drawn on social issues has raised disquiet among potential supporters on the left.
“There are these mixed signals,” said Estefanía Vela Barba, a professor at Cide, a research university. “They’re making us wait until he is in the presidency to see what he actually thinks.”