STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — While chilly conditions on Staten Island are expected to dissipate later this week, again giving way to fall weather, the borough is just months away from the arrival of winter and the potential of snow impacting the area.
After New York City’s last winter saw less-than-normal snowfall accumulation and warmer-than-average temperatures, forecasters have begun issuing predictions for the 2022-2023 season.
Here’s how seasonal outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and AccuWeather compare.
National Weather Service graphic.
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its seasonal temperature outlook last month and expects Staten Island to be among the areas to experience above-normal temperatures from December through February.
While the forecast has shifted slightly since the outlook published a month prior, in August, Staten Island still sits between a 40% and 50% chance to have higher temperatures than typically experienced during the winter months.
AccuWeather graphic.
AccuWeather places Staten Island in the category of locations expected to see temperatures between two and three degrees warmer than usual for December.
Not far south of Staten Island could see an upward departure closer to three degrees, according to AccuWeather, falling in line with NOAA’s predictions for a warmer-than-usual winter.
Warmer winters bring the possibility of more intense snowstorms, the Advance/SILive.com previously reported, working in the same way warmer air acts as fuel for summer storms to drop significant rainfall.
Temperatures can be just slightly warmer than normal — but still below freezing — and help create massive storms.
National Weather Service graphic.
The NOAA’s prediction for the upcoming winter indicates New York City will see precipitation levels around average, though portions of Western New York have some chance of above-average precipitation.
That forecast has remained largely unchanged for the area since predictions issued just under two months ago.
In New York City, Philadelphia and the New Jersey region, forecasters from AccuWeather are predicting below-average snow accumulations during the winter of 2022-2023, but slightly more snow than last winter.AccuWeather
Below-average snow accumulations are forecasted by AccuWeather for Staten Island and portions of the New York City metro area.
While New York City’s Central Park climate station typically receives 29.8 inches of snowfall, on average, AccuWeather forecasted between six and nine days of snow accumulation causing between 18 to 23 inches of accumulation. The station saw just under 18 inches last winter.
However, the strong variability of La Niña winters — especially after three consecutive seasons influenced by the climate phenomena that occurs when the water near the equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooler than average — makes for a complicated puzzle for forecasters.
“These third-year La Niñas are very tricky,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok in a release.
2022-23 winter season in NYC
>> How cold will it be? Here’s how two early winter forecasts stack up
>> Be prepared: These snowblowers are essential for a big storm
>> Be cozy: Nothing keeps you warm like a Canada Goose jacket
>> Be informed: Get the city’s Notify NYC app, and subscribe to News Alerts emails from the Advance/SILive.com