To: City & State

From: Bradley Honan

Elisabeth Zeche

Re: Initial Polling Results

Date: 5/6/22

Overview:

In partnership with City & State Magazine, Honan Strategy Group (HSG) conducted a
survey among City & State subscribers. 588 online survey interviews were conducted
through our proprietary online data collection platform from May 2 to May 5, 2022.

The aim of the survey was to understand the perspective of political and policy
“Insiders” towards important state and local issues.

Why survey and study this audience? Political Insiders simply have more political pull
and impact than the average voter based on some of what they do day in and day out.

• They are elected officials who make decisions about public policy issues which
are of great consequence to the city and the state.
• They work at the highest levels of city, state, and the federal government on
policy issues.
• They advise elected officials and high-level government stakeholders about
policy issues.
• They run and manage companies, organizations and non-profits which advocate
for public policy issues.
• They donate to political campaigns and make endorsements.
• They run, manage, and advise elected officials about how to run for office and
get elected.
• They cover public policy and politics for various media outlets.
• They are “looked to” by others for how to think about public policy and political
issues facing the city and state.
• And needless to say, Insiders are following the discussion about public policy
issues and politics pretty intimately.

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For all these reasons, understanding their perspectives are very important to
understanding how issues and politics will play out.

Key Findings:

• Both Mayor Adams and Governor Hochul receive very poor job performance
evaluations.

o Just 19% rate the job Adams is doing as Mayor as either excellent or good
and just 22% give the same rating to Kathy Hochul.

• In terms of the primary race for Governor, 73% expect Kathy Hochul to win the
Democratic nomination and 55% believe that Lee Zeldin will win the GOP
nomination.

• While 2 in 3 (69%) say that Hochul will win election as Governor in November,
41% say that the race will be tight.

• As the redistricting process plays out, 75% say that the State should consolidate
the scheduled June and August primary into a single primary covering all the
races on the ballot this year.

• In terms of their political outlook for Congressional elections this year, 45%
expect that we will see an incumbent Member of Congress go down to defeat, as
we saw in 2018 with Rep. Joe Crowley and in 2020 with Rep. Eliot Engel.

• On the public policy issues that we polled on:

• 82% say that companies not making their office workers return full time to their
Manhattan offices will either be permanent or will last for at least a few years.
Just 5% say this policy will be temporary and office workers will be back at their
desks soon.

• Therefore it is not surprising that 63% say that it will take NYC between 1 and 5
years to fully recover economically from the COVID-19 pandemic.

• As we have seen in other public polls, the $600 million dollar stadium subsidy to
the Buffalo Bills is very unpopular and Insiders do not feel differently. 83% say
that the Buffalo Bills subsidy was not the right thing to do.

• In terms of the “good cause” eviction law, 69% support what State Sen. Julia
Salazar and Assembly Member Pamela are proposing and 24% side with real
estate.

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Job Performance Ratings:

We asked Insiders to rate the job performance being done by Mayor Eric Adams and
Governor Kathy Hochul. We found that Insiders are very negative towards the job being
done by both Mayor Adams and Governor Hochul.

Indeed, a significant number of Insiders rate their job performance as “poor”. Today,
just 19% rate the job Eric Adams is doing as Mayor as excellent or good and just under
one third (29%) rate his job performance as fair. By contrast, 49% rate Mayor Adams’
job performance as poor.

Similarly, just 22% rate the job Kathy Hochul is doing as Governor as excellent or good.
While 36% rate her job performance as fair, 40% rate her job performance as poor.

Question Text: Based on what you have seen of Eric Adams so far, how do you think Adams has done as
Mayor of New York City? / Based on what you have seen of Kathy Hochul so far, how do you think
Hochul has done as Governor of New York State?

Eric Adams Kathy Hochul

Excellent 2% 3%
Good 17% 19%
Fair 29% 36%
Poor 49% 40%
I don’t know 2% 1%

The Race for Governor:

Next, we asked about the Democratic and Republican primary race for Governor, as
well as the general election. In terms of who Insiders believe will win the Democratic
nomination, 73% say they believe it will be Kathy Hochul, 12% say it will be Jumaane
Williams and 4% say Tom Suozzi will win the nomination. 10% say they don’t know.

Question Text: Who do you believe will win the Democratic primary election for Governor?

Kathy Hochul 73%

Tom Suozzi 12%
Jumaane Williams 4%
Someone else 2%
I don’t know 10%

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In terms of the GOP, 55% say that Lee Zeldin will win the Republican primary for
Governor, but 32% say they don’t know. 5% say Andrew Giuliani will win the
nomination, 4% say Rob Astorino will win, and just 2% say it will be Harry Wilson.

Question Text: Who do you believe will win the Republican primary election for Governor?

Lee Zeldin 55%

Andrew Giuliani 5%
Rob Astorino 4%
Harry Wilson 2%
Someone else 1%
I don’t know 32%

In terms of the general election, 69% say that Kathy Hochul will be elected Governor
this fall. Of that, 41% say that Hochul will win, but it will be tight and just under a third
predict she will win by a landslide. By contrast, 2 in 10 say it is too soon to tell and 9%
say that Hochul will possibly or likely lose the race.

Question Text: Assuming Hochul wins the Democratic primary, what is your prediction about what will
happen in the November election between her and whoever is the GOP nominee for Governor?

Kathy Hochul will win by a landslide 28%

Kathy Hochul will win, but the race will
be tight 41%
It is still too soon to say 18%
Kathy Hochul will possibly lose re-
election to the Republican nominee 7%
Kathy Hochul will likely lose re-election
to the Republican nominee 2%
I don’t know 4%

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Two Primaries or One?

With the redistricting process having been thrown up in the air, there is a question of
whether there will be separate June and August primaries, or whether it will be
consolidated into one election. 75% of political Insiders say that there should be a
single consolidated primary versus only 13% who say there should be two primaries.

Question Text: With the recent court ruling regarding redistricting of state and congressional legislative
lines, which of the following do you believe is the appropriate outcome?

There should be a single

consolidated primary in August 75%
There should be two primaries with
the Statewide and State Assembly
primary in late June, followed by a
Congressional and State Senate
primary in late August 13%
I don’t know 12%

The 2022 Congressional Primaries:

With the context that Representative Joe Crowley and Representative Eliot Engel were
defeated in their primary elections in 2018 and 2020, we wanted to see if Insiders felt
something similar would happen later this year. We found that 45% of Insiders believe
that the 2022 primary will see the defeat of an incumbent Member of Congress. 20%
don’t expect that to happen and about one third (35%) are not sure.

Question Text: The 2018 Democratic primary election saw the defeat of Rep. Joe Crowley and the 2020
Democratic primary saw the defeat of Rep. Eliot Engel. Will the 2022 New York primary see the defeat of
any incumbent Members of Congress from either party?

Yes 45%
No 20%
I don’t know 35%

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Public Policy Issues:

Beyond some of the political issues that we surveyed on, we also asked about some
public policy issues facing New York City and New York State.

We began by asking whether reports that some companies are not making their office
workers return full time to their Manhattan offices will be permanent.

We found that 49% believe that companies not making their office workers return to the
office will be a permanent change. 33% say the impact will be medium term – a trend
that will last a few years. Only 5% say this will be temporary and 12% say they don’t
know.

Question Text: There has been some reporting that many companies are not making their office workers
return full time to their Manhattan offices. Will this trend be…?

Long-lasting - it will be a permanent

change 49%
Medium term - this trend will last for a
few years 33%
Temporary - most office workers will be
back at their desk soon 5%
I don't know 12%

Connected to this, we asked when Insiders believe that New York City would fully
recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Just 3% say that NYC will recover by the end of
the year. The overwhelming majority believe it will take much longer.

18% believe that NYC will never fully recover or recovery will take more than 5 years.
32% say that NYC will fully recover economically from COVID-19 in 1 to 3 years and
31% say it will be 3 to 5 years to recovery.
Question Text: When do you think New York City will fully recover economically from the COVID-19
pandemic?

By the end of the year 3%

1 < 3 years 32%
3 < 5 years 31%
More than 5 years 18%
It will never fully recover 9%
I don’t know 7%
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We asked several questions about the state subsidy to the Buffalo Bills to help build
them a new stadium.

As we have seen in some of the other public polling, this was not a popular decision.
83% say that the $600 million dollar state subsidy to build the Buffalo Bills a new
stadium was not the right thing to do. Just 1 in 10 (11%) say that it was the right thing
to do.
Question Text: Did you think that the $600 million state subsidy to build the Buffalo Bills a new stadium
that Kathy Hochul got the legislature to agree to was the right thing to do, or not?

It was the right thing to do 11%

It was not the right thing to do 83%
I don’t know 6%

We also asked about the political impact of the stadium deal. Almost half (50%) say
that the stadium deal will harm Hochul and the Democrats politically, 9% say that it will
help them, and 30% say that it will have no impact.

Question Text: Regardless of whether it was the right thing to do or not, will the Buffalo Bills state stadium
subsidy help Hochul and the Democrats politically this fall, harm them or have no impact?

It will help Hochul and the

Democrats politically 9%
It will harm Hochul and the
Democrats politically 50%
It will have no impact 30%
I don’t know 12%

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Last, we asked about the “good cause” eviction law being push forward by State Sen.
Julia Salazar and Assembly Member Pamela Hunter which sets the standards for when
evictions are appropriate. 69% support this proposed law and just 24% side with
landlords and real estate.

Question Text: State Sen. Julia Salazar of Brooklyn and Assembly Member Pamela Hunter of Syracuse
have proposed the “good cause” eviction bill which they say will set the standards for when evictions are
appropriate and prevent drastic rent increases. Many landlords and real estate industry insiders say that
this legislation is unworkable because the courts are too tied up with a backlog of cases leaving them
unable to address issues of nonpayment, criminal activity, nuisance behavior, and destruction of property.
Which side do you agree with more?

State Sen. Salazar and

Assembly Member Hunter 69%
Landlords and real estate
industry 24%
It will have no impact 7%

About the Honan Strategy Group:

The Honan Strategy Group is a polling, market research, and data analytics company
headquartered in New York City.

The executives of Honan Strategy Group have conducted hundreds of public opinion
research studies over the last 20 years and have worked for; Hillary Clinton, Mike
Bloomberg, Tom DiNapoli, Eliot Engel, Ruben Diaz Junior, Elizabeth Crowley, Betsy
Gotbaum, Bill Thompson, Daniel O’Donnell, and Ed Towns, City & State magazine,
among many others, as well as major Fortune 500 companies.
Website:
www.HonanStrategy.com