Elsevier

Applied Energy

Volume 315, 1 June 2022, 118824
Applied Energy

Planning-Oriented resilience assessment and enhancement of integrated electricity-gas system considering multi-type natural disasters

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118824Get rights and content

Highlights

  • A framework is proposed to describe the generic natural disaster modelling process.

  • The disaster scenario database is constructed to provide data for resilience research.

  • Reusable impact-increment database is built to accelerate resilience assessment.

  • Component-level indices are proposed for targeted resilience enhancement.

Abstract

A planning-oriented resilience assessment and enhancement approach is proposed that can efficiently deal with multi-type natural disasters. A unified disaster modelling framework is proposed to extract key information from various potential disaster scenarios, thus forming a disaster scenario database. The impact-increment-based enumeration method is applied, and a reusable impact-increment database is established to speed up the assessment process. The reusable database is also utilized to calculate component-level resilience indices and economic indices, so as to make enhancement strategies against potential disasters within planning time scale. Resilience assessment on an integrated electricity-gas system in Taiwan's coastal seismic statistical zone shows that the proposed method can significantly improve the computational efficiency as compared to existing methods. Numerical results indicate that the resilient planning considering the diversity of natural disaster types comprehensively improves the system resilience, which means it is not only concerned with the system performance under a single type of disaster. In addition, the most suitable resilience enhancement scheme with insufficient funds shall be developed according to the economic indices, instead of the component-level resilience indices that cannot balance the resilience enhancement effect with the implementation cost.

Introduction

Affected by climate changes, extreme events, such as natural disasters have become more and more frequent, which threatens the normal operation of the integrated electricity-gas system (IEGS). In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake caused blackouts and multiple gas pipeline rupture accidents [1], [2]. In 2013, Super Typhoon Usagi landed in Guangdong Province, causing one 500 kV line and six 220 kV lines to be out of service [3]. IEGS is prone to high-order faults under natural disasters, which often lead to electricity and gas shortages. For this reason, the concept of resilience has been used to assess the ability of the existing or planned system to withstand disasters and quickly return to normal operating conditions [4], [5], [6].

Many studies have been carried out on resilience indices. It is well known that the resilience includes four factors: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity [7], [8]. Among them, redundancy and resourcefulness describe the means of improving resilience, while the corresponding effect is measured by robustness and rapidity [9]. The resilience triangle [9] and the resilience trapezoid [10] describe the resilience index in terms of robustness and rapidity, which can reflect the common influence of the four factors. Furthermore, the planning-oriented resilience index [11] only considers the robustness and is defined as the weighted average of the load shedding expectations under all potential typhoon scenarios. This simplification is feasible for the transmission system, which mainly focuses on the ability to withstand disasters.

IEGS is an important form of the trans-regional integrated energy system, which connects electrical power system (EPS) and natural gas system (NGS) through coupling facilities. In recent years, research on the resilience of IEGS has been paid increasing attention. Ref. [12] draws the intensity distribution map according to the earthquake intensity attenuation characteristic to assess the resilience of IEGS crossing different intensity regions. Ref. [11] builds a cumulative component failure probability model to describe the typhoon impact. Ref. [13] uses the buried gas pipelines to improve the EPS resilience from the perspective of the coordinated planning of EPS and NGS. In reality, IEGS is subject to various types of disasters, while existing studies usually perform resilience assessment in terms of single-type disaster. A resilient IEGS should be planned with sufficient resilience under any possible disaster, which places a demand on resilience assessment considering multi-type disasters.

The methods for resilience assessment can be divided into Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) -based and analytical methods, such as state enumeration (SE). The fault states of MCS are sampled according to the component failure probability, which is changed under different disaster scenarios. SE generally enumerates only low-order fault states to ensure efficiency, leading to a certain underestimation. As an improvement of SE, the impact-increment-based state enumeration (IISE) method increases the weight of low-order fault states, thereby significantly reducing the error caused by ignoring high-order fault states [14], [36]. In addition, the impact-increments obtained by IISE can be reused when the disaster scenario changes, which is a huge advantage over MCS.

Existing research on resilience enhancement mainly includes Robust Optimization (RO) -based and scenarios-based methods [15]. The RO-based method generally builds a tri-level defender-attacker-defender model to optimize the resilience performance in the worst case [16], [17], leading to a pessimistic resilience enhancement scheme. The scenarios-based method analyses the impact of each disaster scenario generated according to historical data [11], [18], thus finding the system weaknesses for targeted reinforcement. However, this method is quite time-consuming.

To sum up, the diversity of natural disaster types is rarely considered in previous resilience studies and may lead to one-sided results. This concern is even more pronounced in some areas with more than one type of major disasters, such as Indonesia and Taiwan [19], [20]. When it comes to the index calculation, MCS has to resample fault states considering multi-type disasters, while the accuracy of SE is often not up to requirement. To this end, this paper proposes a resilience assessment and enhancement approach for IEGS planning considering multi-type natural disasters. The main contributions are as follows:

1) A unified natural disaster modelling framework has been developed to extract the key information of potential disasters as one intuitive format, which allows us to generate the disaster scenario database covering multi-type disasters for planning investigations.

2) The IISE method has been extended to develop a resilience assessment method considering a large number of potential disaster scenarios. This is achieved by repeatedly invoking the impact-increment database during the assessment and leads to significant computational efficiency improvement.

3) Both the component-level resilience indices and economic indices are proposed to help planners identify the most suitable resilience enhancement scheme.

Section snippets

Resilience indices

As for planning of IEGS, robustness generally has a higher weighting than other resilience factors. To simplify the calculation, a system-level resilience index rsys is denoted to quantify the resilience of the IEGS, which is expressed asrsys=E[Qshed]Qshed=Pshed+qGshed

where E[Qshed] is the expected load shedding (MW); Pshed and Gshed are the shedding of electric load (MW) and natural gas load (Sm3/h) respectively; q is the low calorific value of natural gas, taken as 0.01045MWh/Sm3. The smaller

Planning-oriented resilience assessment and enhancement considering Multi-type natural disasters

There is serious uncertainty about the natural disasters to which IEGS may be exposed during the planning period. However, the resilience indices introduced in section 2.1 are only applicable to IEGS under a specific natural disaster. Due to this concern, this paper argues that planning-oriented resilience assessment should be based on a set of scenarios covering multi-type disasters, thus supporting objective decision-making.

The weighting method can be used to synthesize the resilience indices

Conclusion and future work

This paper proposes a resilience assessment and enhancement method for IEGS considering multi-type potential disasters within planning time scale. The disaster scenario database (DSD) has been developed to fully represent the impact of all potential disasters during the planning period. The reusable impact-increment database (RIID) is constructed, and the planning-oriented indices are calculated by repeatedly invoking RIID. Component-level indices are calculated to locate the weak points of the

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the joint project of NSFC of China and EPSRC of UK (No.52061635103 and EP/T021969/1) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52077150).

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