Hurricane Ian plowed into Cuba early Tuesday growing in strength to a Category 3 major hurricane with 125 mph sustained winds with a projected path that sees the storm growing further before making landfall on Florida likely near Tampa Bay by 2 a.m. Thursday.
As of 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center puts the center of Ian over the far western portion of Cuba having made landfall at 4:30 a.m. near the city of Pinar Del Rio. It’s located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas moving north at 12 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles with tropical-force-storm winds out 115 miles.
The system is expected to grow by Tuesday afternoon into a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and 165 mph gusts in the Gulf of Mexico before turning to the the north-northeast and slowing down its forward speed while making a beeline to Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Its center is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys and approach Florida’s west coast by Wednesday still as a major Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds and 150 mph gusts.
“Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today,” said NHC forecasters. “Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening, and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday.”
Exactly where on the Florida coast is not entirely certain. Some computer forecast model runs overnight since Monday showed the storm coming onshore south of Tampa and moving up the I-4 corridor toward Orlando. Others still showed the storm skirting the coast near Tampa and then making its way inland.
Gov. Ron DeSantis is slated to hold a press conference from the state’s Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee at 9 a.m.
“There continues to be larger-than-normal spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in the global models has been more southward and eastward over the last cycle or two. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted to the southeast of the previous forecast,” the NHC said.
“Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
The shift in projected path Tuesday morning prompted the NHC to extend the hurricane warning along Florida’s west coast farther south so it now runs from Bonita Beach up to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs including all of Tampa Bay as well as the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was issued for North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River.
Much of Central Florida including Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk and Seminole counties are now under a tropical storm warning while Volusia is under a tropical storm watch. Tropical-storm conditions are expected in the area within 36 hours. Lake, Sumter and Polk counties are also under a hurricane watch.
The impact for the region from Ian is expected to be rain, flooding, severe storms and high wind gusts, with the worst weather expected on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC said central west Florida could see between 12 and 16 inches of rain with some maximum totals up to 24 inches.
“Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida,” the NHC said. “Flash and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern Florida through mid week.”
Tornadoes are possible in Florida beginning today as well.
Already overnight, the National Weather Service issued tornado warnings in the Florida Keys as the outer bands of Ian began to move over the peninsula and possible funnel clouds were spotted near the Seven Mile Bridge around 1 a.m. and later over Islamorada, the NWS said. A third warning near Plantation Key came after 6:30 a.m.
The coast could see devastating effects from storm surge with a warning that from the Anclote River south to the middle of Longboat Key, surges could see between 5 to 10 feet. Surge as the storm passes through the state is projected to be up to 4 feet along Florida’s East Coast including from Volusia County north into Georgia.
“The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the NHC said.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday 5,000 National Guardsmen from Florida along with 2,000 more from neighboring states have been activated along with five urban search and rescue teams in preparation for the storm’s impact during a a press conference from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee.
“Floridians up and down the Gulf Coast should feel the impacts of this as up to 36 hours before the actual landfall due to the size of the hurricane,” DeSantis said. “This is a really, really big hurricane at this point, the diameter, the width of it’s about 500 miles wide. So you look at the cone and if you look at where they have the landfall going, I think the landfall is still Levy County, the impacts are going to be much much broader than that.”
He warned of power loss as it makes landfall across a wide breadth of the state no matter where it finally makes landfall. As of 6:30 a.m. Tuesday, less than 2,000 people in the state are without power, mostly in Miami-Dade County according to poweroutage.us.
“Make sure you have your plan in place,” he said.
DeSantis announced in an afternoon press conference that Hillsborough County has ordered a mandatory evacuation for residents in Zone A and all manufactured housing, and a voluntary evacuation for those in Zone B. Pinellas County has already begun evacuating nursing homes, residential facilities, and hospitals. Starting 6 p.m. a mandatory evacuation will begin for residents in Zone A and all mobile homes. Residents in other zones are urged to find high ground, Cathie Perkins, the county emergency management director said.
Parts of Lee County were under mandatory evacuation orders issued Tuesday.
Other counties will be issuing evacuation orders as well, and DeSantis urged residents to listen to their local officials and “heed their warnings.”
Seminole County officials announced plans to open eight emergency shelters at public schools across the county as Hurricane Ian approaches the Florida peninsula. After opening the sites on Wednesday, county emergency officials will then call for an evacuation of certain residents.
Residents can plug in their addresses at floridadisaster.org/planprepare to find out what zone they’re in.
“Again, there’s no need to panic,” DeSantis said.
President Joe Biden also declared an emergency, authorizing the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster relief and provide assistance to protect lives and property.
NASA decided Monday to roll its $4.1 billion Artemis I mission rocket back to the safety of the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center.
Across Central Florida, schools were monitoring Ian’s progress.
The Osceola County school district will close its campuses Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday because of the hurricane, officials announced Monday. Some Osceola campuses are needed as shelters, both for county residents and those evacuating from the coast, they said.
The Lake County school district, which already announced it was closing schools Wednesday and Thursday, said Monday afternoon it was also canceling classes on Friday. To find out what school districts are closing schools, go to FLDOE.org/storminfo.
Bethune-Cookman University, a private historically Black university in Daytona Beach, announced a mandatory campus evacuation beginning Monday at noon with no return date set yet and students in residents halls were encouraged to evacuate as soon as Sunday.
At B-CU classes will be moved online only on Tuesday, according to a letter by the Office of Academic Affairs on Saturday.
At the University of Central Florida, campus will remain open through Tuesday with classes canceled Wednesday-Friday and campus closed Wednesday and Thursday.
Rollins College in Winter Park, will announced the campus will close at 5 p.m. Wednesday; with residential halls to close at 4 p.m. Wednesday, and all staying closed Thursday and Friday for damage assessment.
The University of South Florida in Tampa is closing the campus beginning Tuesday with classes not resuming until Oct. 3.
Florida State University and the University of Florida are continuing to monitor the storm before announcing any changes to campus operations or classes, according to their official social media pages.
Both universities ask their students to plan and prepare as well as ensure they are up to date with their university’s emergency alert system.
Staff writer Jeffrey Schweers and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
