Half measures

Good summary of the current state of political play in Russia, from a knowledgable journalist:

Prigozhin’s fate is ultimately of limited significance to Putin’s political survival. It was a settling of scores that may work to keep people in line for a bit, but doesn’t address the deeper sources of stress to the system. For starters, demoting top generals and blowing mercenary leaders on whom you’ve long depended out of the sky, all in the middle of an ongoing war, are not the actions of a confident, efficient, stable autocracy. A longer-term rot has set in, which, over time, will need ever more dramatic, and risky, action to try to cover over. Once the spiral is set in motion, it can only intensify in one direction. That is not to say the Putin system awaits great weakness or catastrophe; these dynamics can play out over years, if not decades.

Most decisive will be the war itself. For the moment, Russian defenses have held up better than expected against the Ukrainian counter-offensive. If that continues, and this summer’s Ukrainian campaign fizzles without taking back considerable chunks of Russian-occupied territory, Putin’s authority and sway over the élite will likely remain. But if that changes, and Russian lines collapse or are considerably weakened anywhere along the front, especially in striking distance of Crimea, then suddenly Putin’s legitimacy would weaken in ways that could quickly surpass the challenge posed by Prigozhin.

The Prigozhin affair contains a further lesson. He made two miscalculations, you might say: one was launching the rebellion in the first place, but, having done so, the real error was ending it prematurely. Putin may have frightened the élite into obedience, but now they all know, once and for all, that any supposed claims of a pardon or forgiveness can’t be trusted. That leaves only the most extreme option. On the night of Prigozhin’s death, a Telegram channel run by a far-right unit linked to Wagner published a post that was quickly shared widely: “Let this be a lesson to all,” it read. “Always go all the way.”

I retain a very faint hope that Prigozhin is actually still alive, since if he is he will surely understand that his only chance to stay that way for much longer is to find some way to terminate Putin’s tenure with extreme prejudice, and soon.