Should CEOs double-down on business transformation in the face of uncertainty?

The success of businesses’ transformation and growth ambitions will be influenced by their ability to understand and master two areas of turbulence, macro-economics and geostrategy:

1. CEOs understand that the macro-economic landscape will be challenging, but they are more confident in their ability to drive their own company’s growth agenda.

Looking back, 2023 was a year of reassessment. The global economy oscillated from hope at the start, with widespread expectations that China’s opening from nearly three years of lockdowns would provide a significant boost to the global economy, to disappointment and disillusionment when this did not materialize. The main narrative then moved to the concerted efforts by central banks to bring down inflation. Progress has been made, but there is some work still to do in many major economies to bring sticky inflation in line with policy objectives.

Three-quarters (76%) of CEOs now agree there is likely to be a “lower for longer” growth environment, with a similar number (78%) concurring that inflation will continue to be a major issue and underpin interest rates staying “higher for longer.” For PE respondents there is a majority agreement for both scenarios, but, interestingly, about one-fifth of PE respondents disagree on growth (20%) and inflation (21%), compared to just 10% and 8% of CEOs, respectively. PE respondents are likely to be more bullish about growth and inflation prospects as they have tended to be comfortable with risk and have historically been more likely to signal a change in market conditions earlier than the consensus.

But the overall agreement that economic tailwinds will be lacking has not necessarily dented respondents’ outlook on their organization’s performance.

These findings are in line with the EY CEO Outlook Pulse in October 2023.

Similarly, while more than half (57%) of CEOs expect the cost of inputs and the cost of doing business to increase, the majority (85%) of those expecting an increase anticipate being able to pass most of them on to customers – a reasonable assumption, given the evolution and outlook for producer prices and inflation.

There is a clear divergence by region in their outlook for growth, profitability and costs. CEOs in Asia-Pacific are far more confident about revenue growth (75%), profitability (74%) and costs (70%) than their peers in other regions. The same CEOs are far more confident about being able to pass on all costs to customers, with more than half (54%) expecting to be able to do so. This ability to maintain growth and profitability is underpinned by their focus on cost discipline.

2. CEOs have deepened their understanding of geopolitical issues, but a bumpy year lies ahead, with geopolitical risks now an integral part of corporate strategy.

Leading CEOs have long incorporated the ups and downs of the business cycle into their thinking and have been able to react better to unforeseen economic and financial shocks. Now, with geopolitics a major consideration, some CEOs have developed new skill sets, with others yet to enhance their geopolitical risk assessment capability.

As CEOs adjust to a more volatile, multipolar geopolitical environment, more refinements will be needed to implement proactive, effective geostrategies.

CEOs are more likely to simply delay investments and reconfigure supply chains as they look to build extra resiliency into their operations, while PE respondents are much more likely to exit businesses or markets. This is likely due to the greater levels of interdependencies within global corporate structures or the perceived lack of any reputational damage for PE firms exiting assets. On the flip side, CEOs are more likely than PE respondents to stop or cancel an investment, but in both cases it’s more than one-third.

The majority (78%) agree that the rise of populist movements around the world will increase geopolitical uncertainty and create business challenges such as policy uncertainty. A similar number (76%) are very concerned about how AI could be misused to impact elections taking place over the next 12 months.

These elections will generate regulatory and policy uncertainty in the short and medium term. Some elections – especially those in the US and EU – may be seen as the most consequential in many years, amid competing visions for international relationships and economic policy that will fundamentally impact the global business environment.

At US$3t, global M&A in 2023 brought the lowest level of dealmaking in over a decade. But that aggregate number hides a more complex story of M&A during the year. After a historically low start to 2023, there was a steady improvement of both value and volume, with the fourth quarter very robust.

Global M&A by quarter

The markets were buoyed in the final quarter by the return of larger deals, as uncertainties about policy and growth dissipated. With 14 deals of more than US$10b announced, it was the highest level since the 3Q 2021, at the height of the post-pandemic M&A boom. And both CEOs and PE leaders expect this trend to continue. Over three-quarters of CEOs (79%) and a similar number of PE leaders (71%) anticipate that there will be an uptick in megadeals (of US$10b or more) as the M&A market bounces back.

More than a third (36%) of CEOs are actively planning to make an acquisition in the next 12 months. While this is only a slight improvement over the October survey findings, it is another small signal that points to a stronger year for dealmaking in 2024.

And while dealmaking in 2023 was dominated by the US geographically and by elevated deals in energy and life sciences, CEOs anticipate a broadening by both location and sector.

PE leaders likely will be able to help CEOs accelerate their divestiture plans. With nearly a third (29%) of CEOs planning an asset sale of some kind over the next 12 months, and 16% looking to such sales as the main source of funding for their transformation initiatives, it is likely to be a busy year for divestitures.

A clear majority of PE leaders (70%) believe that corporates will accelerate divestment activity this year and are signaling that PE firms with significant operating teams and restructuring capability see an opportunity.

CEOs are pointing to a mixture of geographies where they will be looking to sell assets, with China in first place. From a sector perspective, there is likely to be divestiture activity across the industrials, banking, life sciences and wider TMT space, all areas with elevated levels of disruption.

Among CEOs, there is a clear view that divestitures are a key lever to embed a forward-looking focus in their portfolio and operations that will help lay a strong foundation for growth.

It also allows them to free up and refocus capital on more strategic initiatives and their transformation imperatives.

In this context, CEOs are actively considering what specific actions will move the dial the most for their company. They are identifying the actions required to emerge in a stronger competitive position in the next 12 months and beyond.

And there is clear scope for CEOs and PE to work better together to drive more successful outcomes. The best-prepared sellers and buyers will unlock the most value, but the survey shows that there is room for improvement in driving divestment success.

While a majority of PE firms that have acquired a divested asset over the past two years are pleased with the outcome, a significant cohort have been less than satisfied with the results. Looking deeper into these deals, a few key themes emerge.

Separating a business, especially one that has been deeply embedded in a larger organization for a long time, is difficult. It’s vital for both buyer and seller to fully understand the likely path for the stand-alone asset to maximize value.

Critical to making the split and sale more successful is a clear narrative about the valuation potential from the start. This needs to be developed with the leadership and wider stakeholders of the asset, making them central to the process from the beginning. It is also critical that the successful buyer engages with the existing stakeholders to maintain capabilities and protect market share and customers as the separation is finalized.

In this series

Summary

CEOs are looking to be proactive in transforming their companies for faster growth than the low-growth environment offers. They are looking to pull all the levers available, including both organic and inorganic changes, to lay the foundations for sustainable acceleration in a new environment.