California needs to kick its driving habit to reach 2030 climate goals, new report says

Car-dependent California needs to hit the brakes hard if it wants to meet its aggressive climate change mandates, a new, independent report warns. 

The study for the San Francisco-based policy nonprofit Next 10 concludes that while California has beat its own deadline for short-term greenhouse gas reductions, largely thanks to its increasing use of renewable energy, it is decades behind on other goals. At its current annual rate of cutting emissions by 1.15%, the state won't meet its 2030 target until 2061, and could be more than 100 years late in meeting its 2050 target.  The study was performed by Beacon Economics, a research consulting firm.

"The state has some hard truths to face as it looks to deliver much steeper annual emissions reductions in the years ahead," Next 10 founder F. Noel Perry said. "We’re going to need major policy breakthroughs and deep structural changes." 

The main culprit?  Transportation emissions hit a record high in 2017—making up 41.1% of the state’s total—with passenger vehicles accounting for 28%. And our love for SUVs and pickups is rising, as are the miles we're driving. Other growing factors include fumes from wildfires and commercial and landfill waste.

California air regulators responsible for slashing greenhouse gas emissions didn't dispute the overall findings: They said they'd reached the same conclusions two years ago and are pushing to triple the rate of emissions reductions. State law requires that emissions return to 1990 levels by 2020 and go 40% below that marker by 2030.

"We recognize that achieving the target of a 40% reduction by 2030 is an ambitious goal for California — as we clearly pointed out in the 2017 climate action plan," said Air Resources Board spokesman Stanley Young, referring to a report by his agency.  

"That plan lays out a cost-effective, technologically feasible path to achieve our 2030 target.  But it is a plan and we need to make sure the policies and necessary transformations identified in it are actually happening."

The Trump administration's rollbacks on fuel efficiency regulations are making the task tougher, and the state is open to augmenting its strategies.

"California’s climate plans are a living document," said Young. "We are consistently seeking ways to achieve even deeper reductions while continuing to support a thriving economy."

In the Coachella Valley, tailpipe pollution is the biggest contributor to the region's soot and ozone smog, which is the nation's worst alongside Los Angeles, according to reports from regulators. That creates major health concerns across Southern California.

California produces two overall types of air pollution. Greenhouse gas emissions from the state join others from around the globe high in the atmosphere, unleashing overall climate change. Closer to the ground, emissions of lung-piercing diesel particulate, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and other dangerous compounds are the building blocks of soot and ozone smog. Those have been linked to serious lung, heart and other illnesses and deaths.

GDP up 41% while emissions fall 25% 

The study by Next 10 and Beacon Economics is a yearly review of how the state is faring both economically and on its environmental goals, crunching relevant data from state and federal sources. Their 11th annual California Green Innovation Index finds the state is doing well as it greens its economy. The report covers everything from venture capital investment in solar energy (small compared to overall investments) to community choice electricity systems (growing, but still minuscule).

Summing up, the authors noted that the state announced that it had met its first climate goal four years early, passed a new law to transition the state to 100% clean energy by 2050, then saw an executive order calling for a carbon-neutral economy by 2045, and had increases in both renewable energy generation and cleantech investment—all while continuing to grow the economy.

“California has made tremendous gains cutting pollution without detrimental economic impacts,” said Perry. “The state’s per capita GDP has grown more than 41% while per capita greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by just over 25% since 1990."

However, he warned of tough choices ahead:  "This year’s Index serves as a wake-up call—we’re going to need major policy breakthroughs and deep structural changes if we’re going to deliver the much steeper emissions reductions required in the years ahead.”

Adam Fowler, director of research at Beacon Economics, said the state needs to slash emissions by an average of 4.51% each year—a three-fold increase from the 1.15% reduction seen in 2017—to meet the requirements of SB 32, a law that raised the state’s emissions reduction goal to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. The 2017 plan from the state air board called for similar annual reductions, largely from its cap and trade program.

Electric sector cuts mask hikes elsewhere

There have been significant reductions since 2000, mainly from the electricity sector. In 2017, for the first time, renewables like wind and solar provided more electricity to Californians than coal or natural gas-fired plants. That is helping the state meet its 2020 mandate ahead of schedule.

But the industrial, residential, and transportation sectors have only seen small declines, while California’s large commercial sector is moving in the opposite direction—with emissions increasing more than 64% since 2000.

“Over the last 17 years, the industrial, residential and transportation sectors have cut their emissions by less than 5%,” said Fowler. “Moving forward, the state must hit reduction targets of 4.5% annually—the days of a 20-year runway to achieve this level of reduction in these sectors are past.”

To ratchet down, systemic changes are needed in sectors that are most dependent on consumers, including what we drive and how far we go, the researchers said. Right now both those trends are headed in the wrong direction, with car buyers increasingly favoring gas-guzzling —and more polluting —larger vehicles, and driving further each year. By the fourth quarter of 2018, light-duty pickup trucks, mini-vans, and SUVs made up 57.3% of new vehicle registrations, up from 39.3% five years earlier.

Young with the state air board pointed to actions taken to rein in vehicle greenhouse gases, including investments of hundreds of millions of cap-and-trade dollars to promote the purchase of zero-emission cars and trucks, as "examples of California’s full-throated commitment to transforming the transportation sector, where we face the biggest challenges."

Wildfire, landfill challenges

The report also singles out wildfires, noting that the state's 2018 blazes produced an estimated nine times more emissions than were reduced across the entire state’s economy the year prior. In other words, wildfires last year contributed way more greenhouse gases than the commercial, residential or agriculture sectors cut in 2017. 

All told, California's historic 2018 wildfires emitted an estimated 45.5 million metric tons of CO2  emissions—a 24% jump from 2017. 

"What we’re learning is that climate successes can be fragile—and one devastating fire can eclipse hard-won emissions reductions gains,” said Perry. “Our lands serve as an important carbon sink and wildfires are an important part of the natural cycle. But learning to better manage wildfire risk—including power lines, which don’t cause most fires, but have caused our most-destructive fires—is critical.” 

State officials pushed back on the wildfire comparison, saying fires release naturally stored carbon, even though last year's record-setting blazes were sparked by electric utility equipment.

"It is a mistake to compare carbon released by wildfire with human-caused emissions," said Young. "The carbon stored in wildfires is part of the natural carbon cycle; emissions from fossil fuels are the result of pulling carbon out of the ground that otherwise would not be there, and pumping it into the atmosphere."

He added: "To be sure, the state is committed to both reducing the severity of wildfires, and to ensuring that forests sequester additional carbon so they can store more carbon. To get there, California is turning to a broad new set of forest management practices that will help with wildlands emissions." 

Landfill emissions are also emerging as a policy challenge, the report finds, having risen every year since 2004 across the state, and shooting up 7.4% from 2016 to 2017.

Federal opposition to California policies

The report acknowledges the state is facing additional challenges from current federal officials, who have rolled back national fuel efficiency and clean air regulations and revoked California's longstanding waiver to set tougher auto emissions standards than the federal government, a big part of the state's reduction plans. 

The state's attorney general, Xavier Becerra, has sued to block the Trump administration's changes. The legal skirmishes come even as U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler has threatened to cut off highway funds to the Golden State unless officials submit revised plans showing how they will improve the state's bad air. The legal battles could drag on for years before being resolved, adding to delays in dropping emissions if alternate measures are not found. 

Janet Wilson is the senior environment reporter for The Desert Sun and authors USA TODAY's Climate Point newsletter. She can be reached at @janetwilson66 or janet.wilson@desertsun.com