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As pharmaceutical manufacturers are expected to prioritize vaccine production for the nation’s COVID-19 response, Premier data finds that a range of drugs critical to patient care are slipping into shortage.
Alongside the emergence of the Omicron variant and ongoing disease spikes, the prioritization of COVID-19 vaccine production is both rational and prudent. However, a highly consolidated supply chain has created unreasonable demand and overreliance on manufacturers who find challenges in expanding production or shifting capacity in a resource-constrained environment.
Follow the Fill Rate
Knowing and understanding fill rates, the rate at which medicine purchase orders are filled and shipped, is a foundational component to pharmaceutical supply chain management and preparedness. A strong fill rate is at or near 100 percent, meaning suppliers can fulfill customer demand without stockouts, backorders or lost sales.
Premier leverages fill rate trends as one mechanism to help determine the health of the supply chain. For drugs, we consider a healthy fill rate to be above 90 percent, and anything that falls below 80 percent is an early indication that demand is outpacing supply and that shortages may be imminent.
For instance, consider the fill rate trends for methylprednisolone acetate injection. Premier’s data as of December 2021 indicates that fill rates have been below 80 percent since at least August 2021 and continue to trend downwards. In the graph below:
Source: Premier purchasing and fill rate data
Methylprednisolone acetate is often used to treat pain and swelling that occurs with a variety of conditions, and the current fill rates are not adequate to deliver quality patient care. This particular drug shortage is a result of two of the three FDA-approved suppliers encountering manufacturing issues simultaneously.
On Dec. 7, 2021, Premier formally reported a shortage of methylprednisolone acetate injection to the FDA. On Dec. 16, 2021, the FDA added this product to their drug shortage list.
Unfortunately, methylprednisolone acetate is not the only product to slip into shortage as the main producers of generic drugs and raw materials are forced to prioritize COVID-19 vaccines as well as vaccine-related supplies and components ahead of routine production schedules. Similar dynamics exist for a range of essential products (see chart below).
Source: Premier purchasing and fill rate data
Monitoring fill rate data has allowed Premier to provide early communication to both our members and the FDA on potential or impending shortages related to COVID-19 vaccine production. The faster we can respond by working with suppliers to shore up production and working with our members to review clinical protocols and patient demand, the more likely we are to protect patient care in the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine production is not slowing down ─ and maintaining diligent review of the market will be critical to enabling access to vital therapies for providers and patients.
Premier tracks hospitals’ purchasing data for pharmaceuticals and supplies through its group purchasing organization, which serves 4,400 U.S. hospitals and health systems and more than 225,000 non-acute providers. Our data provides a strong early indicator of how hospitals are prioritizing drugs, devices and supplies in their efforts to treat and mitigate COVID-19 and deliver patient care overall.
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