U.S. cotton exports shift due to competition, trade policy

A new study from the University of Illinois investigates how U.S. cotton exports are impacted by these patterns.

The U.S. accounts for 15% of annual world production and 35% of the value of international cotton trade. That makes the country the world’s largest cotton exporter, but Brazil quickly is catching up, said William Ridley, U of I associate professor of agricultural and consumer economics and lead author on the paper, published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

“As recently as the early 2000s, Brazil was only a minor player in the cotton market, and now they’re the second largest exporter in the world. Brazil’s cotton production is more than it used to be, with a large expansion in land area devoted to cotton,” Ridley said. “It is also a trend more broadly with Brazil’s agricultural sectors. They’ve become much more trade-oriented. Almost overnight, they became a major player in the cotton sector.”

Brazil’s exports to Asian markets — primarily China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh and Indonesia — have continuously increased over the past two decades.

Based on a simulation model, Ridley and co-author Stephen Devadoss at Texas Tech University estimate U.S. cotton exports to China dropped by about $500 million annually, with those exports diverted to other markets, primarily Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The authors estimate that Brazil’s exports to China went up by about $75 million. While U.S. exports to China have somewhat recovered since 2020, when the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal was implemented, Brazil’s share of the market remains high.

“Brazil didn’t really have much of a foothold in the Chinese market prior to the trade war. Now they seem to be there to stay, so that’s one of the consequences of the dispute,” Ridley said.

“It’s long been recognized there’s growing competition between the U.S. and Brazil in agricultural markets, particularly soybeans and corn. Brazil is really well suited to the production of a lot of these commodities,” he said. “They are rapidly developing their infrastructure and capacity to export and sell products to the rest of the world.”

Timber Harvest Tips

Harvesting timber can improve the health and vigor of woods and wildlife while also providing additional revenue.

Most landowners don’t know the value of their woodlands, University of Missouri Extension forester Hank Stelzer said, and make uneducated decisions on selling their trees, underestimating their value.

Stelzer offered some tips for landowners with timber, including:

• Know what you have. Read guides and talk with other woodland owners. MU Extension publication G5051, “Selling Timber: What the Landowner Needs To know,” is available for free download at extension.missouri.edu/p/G5051.

• Work with a professional forester. Call 877-564-7483 or go to callb4ucut.com/missouri. This free service will send out a consulting forester to give an initial assessment.

• Find a trained logger. The Missouri Forest Products Association lists professional timber harvesters by county at moforest.org/loggers.

“Insist at a minimum that the logger you hire has completed the association’s Professional Timber Harvester Program,” Stelzer said. “Better yet is for the logger to have earned their Missouri Master Logger certification.”

• Know how to report the sale to the IRS. “Managing Your Timber Sale Tax,” available at extension.missouri.edu/g5056, has guidance on how to report the sale of trees to minimize tax liability.