Stepwise Tobacco Price Increase and Smoking Behavioral Changes in Japan: The Japan "Society and New Tobacco" Internet Survey 2017-2021 Longitudinal Study

Introduction: Tobacco price increase is an effective measure to reduce tobacco smoking. In Japan, the price of combustible cigarettes increased in 2018 and 2020, and that of heated tobacco products increased every year from 2018 to 2020 by tobacco excise taxation. Also, the general consumption tax increase in 2019 slightly raised the retail prices of tobacco products. We investigated the impact of this stepwise tobacco price increase on combustible cigarette smoking status among Japanese adults.

Aims and methods: Five waves of annual longitudinal data (2017-2021) from The Japan "Society and New Tobacco" Internet Survey (JASTIS) (31 930 observations of 11 896 individuals) were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was fitted, adjusting for the prefecture of residence, age, sex, socioeconomic status, health status, alcohol drinking, former smoker's duration of smoking cessation, and the current smoker's number of cigarettes smoked per day.

Results: The 2018 price increase was associated with a reduction in relapse (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42-0.68) and an increment in cessation (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02-1.42). The price increase in 2019 was not associated with relapse (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.63-1.10) or cessation (aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.80-1.13). The 2020 price increase was associated with a reduction in relapse (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.81) and an increment in cessation (aOR 1.45, 95% CI-1.21, 1.73).

Conclusion: The price increase caused by tobacco excise taxation was associated with a reduction in combustible cigarette smoking.

Implications: Japan introduced a policy of stepwise increase in tobacco excise taxation in 2018. We analyzed five-wave longitudinal data to investigate the impact of the policy. Tobacco price increases in 2018 and 2020 were associated with a reduction in combustible cigarette smoking. Tobacco price increases in 2019 by general consumption tax were not associated with a change in combustible cigarette smoking.