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Hurricane Ian is meteorologist Eric Berger's 'nightmare storm' for Houston

By , Staff Writer
Jake Moses, 19, left, and Heather Jones, 18, of Fort Myers, explore a section of destroyed businesses at Fort Myers Beach, Fla., on Thursday, Sep 29, 2022, following Hurricane Ian. (Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP)
Jake Moses, 19, left, and Heather Jones, 18, of Fort Myers, explore a section of destroyed businesses at Fort Myers Beach, Fla., on Thursday, Sep 29, 2022, following Hurricane Ian. (Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP)Douglas R. Clifford/AP

While Florida is in the thralls of Tropical Storm Ian’s destruction, the same type of storm could leave Houston devastated, possibly without hope of ever fully recovering.

It is foreseeable an Ian-style storm could hit Houston in an unlucky hurricane season, forever changing the city.

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Ian is estimated to be one of the most powerful storms in U.S. history, flooding southwest Florida and causing over two million Florida residents to lose power. 

This aerial photo shows damaged homes and debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla.
This aerial photo shows damaged homes and debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla.Wilfredo Lee/AP

Eric Berger, meteorologist, Space City Weather editor and senior space editor at Ars Technica, said when it comes to hurricanes there are three principal threats to worry about: storm surge, winds and rainfall.
 
“Typically, with a hurricane you might get one or two of these threats in a particular area,” Berger said. 

Ian is different though. 

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“The reason I say this is a nightmare storm is because for a sizable chunk of Florida it brought all three threats,” Berger said.  

He said it is absolutely possible for this kind of storm to hit the Houston area. 

“The odds of it happening in any given year are pretty low — probably one in 100. But absolutely it could happen in any given hurricane season,” Berger said. 

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This aerial photo shows damaged boats and structures in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla.
This aerial photo shows damaged boats and structures in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla.Wilfredo Lee/AP

Storm like Ian would 'change our community forever'

Surges generally only affect coastal areas or areas within 10 to 15 feet above the water's surface level. In Houston, those would be places like Galveston and Seabrook, Berger said. 

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Unlike storm surges, wind can have a wider effect. Wind damage can extend 100 miles inland in the Houston area, Berger said. He noted Hurricane Ike in 2008, when winds were enough to take down the power grid for about two weeks. 

For Ike, he said there was a fairly large storm surge along the coast and there was some wind damage, but inland rainfall wasn't a major issue. For Harvey, he said there was not much wind or storm surge issues in Houston, but there was about 50 inches of rainfall. Houston has yet to see a triple threat like Ian with a damaging storm surge, powerful winds and heavy inland rainfall.

Berger said a storm like Ian would be the worst case scenario for Houston.

“It would really change our community forever,” he said.

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He said the immediate impacts would be devastation to parts of Galveston island, Bolivar Peninsula and coastal communities, along with wind damage at least up to Interstate 10. Wind damage would rip roofs off buildings, knock trees down and cause power outages lasting weeks to months. A storm surge threatens to cause environmental catastrophe since many chemical facilities along the Houston Ship Channel are only built up to about 15 feet, meaning there could be facility flooding with toxic leakages in the environment, Berger said. All of this would amount to hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

“It would be very difficult for this population to come back as vibrant as it is now,” Berger said. 

Bigger city would mean bigger consequences

Berger said there are some key differences that would make the damage in Houston different than the damage in Florida. 

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Ian struck a metro area of less than a million people in Florida and a large part of the surge hit the Everglades, which is undeveloped. 

“In Houston you’re talking about a metro area of about eight million people, very heavy development and lots of industry,” Berger said. 

He said surges tend to be worse in Texas than they are in Florida because the slope of the ocean is more gradual here, exacerbating the surge. Florida’s coast has a steeper ocean drop off. The shallow seafloor magnifies the surge. He said also intensifying the surge, is the fact that the Galveston Bay has a funneling effect. 

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Berger said in some areas of Florida, like Orlando, life will move on as people pick up branches and get back to normal in a matter of days or weeks. On the southwest coast of Florida though it will be a different story and is looking at months to years of recovery. 

Hurricane Ian has crossed over Cuba earlier in the week, throwing their entire power grid offline — leaving 11 million people without electricity. The hurricane moved to Florida on Wednesday. 

The storm grew in strength, with 155 mph winds Wednesday morning

Early Thursday, Ian was downgraded to a tropical storm.

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The storm is hitting Florida with strong winds, storm surge and inland rainfall. The impacts have been devastating. 

The National Hurricane Center reported coastal water levels are subsiding along the west coast of Florida Thursday morning. They reported there is a threat of storm surge through Friday along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

The winds are spreading north across northeastern Florida, Georgia and the Carolina coasts. The National Hurricane Center also reported life-threatening and widespread flooding across parts of central Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. 

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