Syracuse, N.Y. -- In a repeat of last week, a storm system dragging moisture from the Southeast is headed toward Upstate New York, bringing the chance for flooding from heavy rain and melting snow.
And just like last week, that storm will be followed by cold air and a chance of snow.
“There is a potential for flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday,” the National Weather Service said. “This is due to high flows from recent rainfall, warm temperatures and associated run-off from melting snow, and a system which is expected to bring between a half inch and three quarters of an inch of rain on Tuesday.”
Temperatures will rise into the high 40s and low 50s today through Wednesday, increasing the runoff from any leftover snow. Rain begins Tuesday morning, with the heaviest falling Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Under similar conditions late last week, water poured over roads in Central New York and ice jams caused flooding in Western New York. While much of the snow pack is gone, the ground is saturated and can’t hold any water, so the rain will run off rapidly into creeks and rivers.
The weather service in Albany has already issued flood watches for the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks for possible flooding. Northern Oneida County and the southern Adirondacks have as much as a foot of snow still on the ground. (See map below.)
It would take about 2 inches of water, in a combination of rain and melting snow, in six hours to cause flash flooding across most of Central New York.
The drenching storm will be followed by a rapid cool down, with temperatures crashing Wednesday night from the 40s to the teens. Forecasters are tracking another storm system that could reach Upstate on Friday, bringing some combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain. It’s still too early to tell what kind of precipitation will fall where, and how much.
While most of Upstate New York has just an inch or so of snow left on the ground (pink), Tug Hill and the Adirondacks have 10 inches or more. Those areas are more flood-prone this week as temperatures warm and another rain storm moves in Tuesday.