Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots 2021 preview with odds, predictions, for Week 13

Orchard Park, N.Y. — Sean McDermott made it a point this week to make sure his Buffalo Bills knew what was on the line against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.

On Tuesday he referred to them as the first-place Patriots. And then on Saturday he sent another reminder: “We’ve got six games to go, that’s all we’re guaranteed at this point, and we’ve got to take them one at a time,” he said.

The Bills (7-4) host the Patriots (8-4) in a critical AFC East battle in primetime with New England riding an NFL-best six-game win streak. With the logjam of seven- and eight-win teams in the AFC, the Bills can’t afford a loss if they want to keep pace in their chase for the no. 1 seed in the conference.

There was a changing of the guard in the division in 2020 when the Bills swept the Patriots and won it for the first time since 1995. But after a free agency spending spree highlighted by the addition of elite pass rusher Matthew Judon and landing quarterback Mac Jones in the draft, the Patriots have shot right back to the top of the division in record time. The Bills haven’t helped themselves, though. Losses against the the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and a heartbreaker against the Tennessee Titans put their divisional dominance in serious jeopardy.

The national conversation has moved on from the upstart Bills and back to the Patriots, who are now many analysts pick to win the division. Franchise left tackle Dion Dawkins has been a part of the rivalry with the Patriots dating back to 2017. He said the Bills never stopped expecting greatness from New England.

“We have a huge target on our back and have had one the entire season,” Dawkins said. “Big ups to the Patriots because they’ve been playing great all year and they’ve been doing a good job and they’ve been rallying around their defense and they have been doing good things.”

The Bills are hoping to get a few players back who have been missed the past few games. Rookie right tackle Spencer Brown and veteran defensive tackle Star Lotulelei came off the Reserve/Covid list and neither has an injury designation for the game. Veteran left guard Jon Feliciano practiced all week after his 21-day window was opened this week, but remains on injured reserve. The Bills must active him if he’s ready to play on Monday.

Dating back to the big win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5, the Bills have been as inconsistent as any team in the NFL. They’ve gone win/loss over their last seven games, bookended by a 31-6 blowout on the road against the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving. In that span the Bills have scored 35 points per game in the four wins and just 17 points per game in the three losses.

The Patriots enter this game with the no. 1-ranked scoring defense in the league, led by Judon, who has 11.5 sacks on the year. Allen said what makes playing Belichick’s defense so difficult is its ability to change between man and zone looks.

“They can drop D-ends and D-tackles out in coverage as well and bring three and kind of switch things up on you,” he said. “I’ve got to make sure that I’m very decisive with the football and reading what they’re trying to do. ... (Judon is) Constantly running downfield and making tackles. He’s got a couple good little moves in the pass rush game.”

Just as the Bills have a challenge against New England’s defense, Jones gets his most legitimate test of his young career against a Bills defense that’s been opportunistic all year. Bills safety Jordan Poyer is tied for a lead league for interceptions by a safety (5) and will be a big part of the plan to disguise coverages to challenge Jones to figure out what the Bills are doing on defense. Buffalo will be without All pro cornerback Tre’Davious White, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury against the Saints. Second-year cornerback Dane Jackson steps in to replace White.

“He’s making plays, man,” Bills safety Micah Hyde said about Jones. “He’s making plays for that offense. And that system, man, you could tell he knows what he’s doing. He’s learning fast, and it’s pretty impressive to see.”

The Bills ranks no. 1 in the NFL in pressure rate (30.2%), according to Pro-Football Reference. Lotulelei’s return comes as a good time as Efe Obada suffered a hip injury in practice on Saturday and is one of three Bills players listed as questionable for the game. Guard Cody Ford and fullback Reggie Gilliam are the others.

The weather is a concern for the game. It’s reportedly going to be windy with gusts as high as 40 miles per hour at times. It’s supposed to rain during the day on Monday and turn colder with possible snow showers at night.

BILLS vs. PATRIOTS

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (ET) on Monday at Highmark Stadium

TV: ESPN (fuboTV, Sling)

RADIO: WGR 550 AM (Buffalo), WROC 950 AM (Rochester), WKTV 105.5 FM (Syracuse)

Line: Bills by 3 (Over/under at 41)

Predictions

Last year Stefon Diggs outplayed J.C. Jackson and led the Bills to a blowout win over the Patriots in primetime with three touchdown receptions. Allen will need to get the ball to Diggs and put pressure on New England’s secondary. Look for the Bills to consider Zack Moss after making him inactive the past 2 games. He ran well against the Patriots last year (3 touchdowns in 2 games) and the weather may require a run game. Bills can get after Jones, who will have to deal with Bills defense and the elements. - Matt Parrino

SCORE: Bills 27, Patriots 21

It wouldn’t surprise me if rain, snow and heavy winds factor into the outcome of this game. We know Josh Allen can throw in less than ideal conditions but can Mac Jones? He doesn’t stretch the field often, but a wet football and heavy winds could mess with Jones’ accuracy in the short and intermediate passing game. Stacking the box and stopping the run should be Buffalo’s main focus until Jones proves he can throw in the elements. Both teams make a few mistakes but at the end of the game, Buffalo takes back control of the division in a close one. - Ryan Talbot

SCORE: Bills 24, Patriots 17

READ MORE

Tom Brady calls next week’s game vs. Bills ‘biggest game of season’ for Buccaneers

How to watch Bills vs. Patriots on MNF: Time, TV channel, free live stream info

A ‘Star’ returns? Bills DT Lotulelei could be key to stopping Patriots’ rushing attack

Stefon Diggs: Eliminating turnovers like milking a cow; How Bills WR views Patriots showdown

Mac & Freeze: Patriots QB Jones set to play in coldest game of career vs. Buffalo Bills

Talk about the Bills

Be sure to check out and subscribe to “Shout! The Buffalo Football Podcast” with beat writers Matt Parrino and Ryan Talbot.

Facebook | Twitter | APPLE | SPOTIFY | GOOGLE | YOUTUBE

Upgrade your NFL stuff

Sideline gear | Gameday masks | Livestream schedule | Bills gear

If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.