Expect another warm, wet winter for Upstate New York, NOAA says

Warm winter expected in much of U.S.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a second warmer-than-normal winter in a row for much of the continental U.S., including Upstate New York.

Syracuse, N.Y. -- It looks like Upstate New York will have a warm, wet winter for the second year in a row.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center this week formally issued its annual winter outlook, again calling for above-average temperatures and above-normal precipitation for much of the U.S., including Upstate New York. The outlook is for the months of December, January and February, what meteorologists define as winter.

Like a year ago, a La Nina is developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That abnormal cooling of waters near the equator has global consequences, including bringing the best chances of colder temperatures to the Northwest and generally warmer ones to the Southeast. The odds aren’t as strong for the rest of the country, but still tilt largely toward warmth and, in the Northeast, more rain and less snow.

“For the second winter in a row, La Nina conditions have developed and are forecast to continue into spring 2022,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the climate center’s operational prediction branch, told the media recently. “Therefore, the temperature and precipitation outlooks are somewhat similar to the forecast issued last year at this time.”

Last year’s prediction came true for Upstate New York, where temperatures were above normal and snowfall was well below. For the three winter months, for example, Syracuse’s average temperature was 2.4 degrees warmer than normal and snowfall was about 3 feet below average.

Precipitation was about normal, so with warmer conditions, more of it fell as rain instead of snow. That pattern is likely to repeat itself this winter, said state Climatologist Mark Wysocki.

“Right now I think the winter could be more of a mess, with mixed precipitation rather than all snow,” Wysocki said.

For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%.

Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties.

“The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said.

La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain.

La Nina isn’t the only factor, though. There are other long-term trends that are taken into account, including the general warming trend over the past few decades.

The climate center’s forecast is at odds with private forecasting service Accuweather, which predicts a cold and snowy winter with a “pretty busy season as far as lake effect snow goes.”

Wet winter expected for Great Lakes region

Higher-than-normal precipitation is expected to fall this winter in the Great Lakes region, including much of Upstate New York. With temperatures expected to be above normal, too, more of that precipitation could fall as rain than in a typical winter.

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