Vibrant fall folliage? Warm, wet weather doesn’t bode well for leaf peeping in Upstate NY

Fall foliage in the central Adirondack Mountains

Fall foliage is on display at Seventh Lake in the central Adirondack Mountains, October 6, 2018. Michael Greenlar | mgreenlar@syracuse.com

Will this year’s fall foliage be a vibrant riot or a muted palette?

If the weather stays wet and warm, experts warn it could be a disappointing leaf-peeping season in Upstate New York.

Leaves are already starting to change in New York. Autumn is painting summer away — transforming leaves from green to yellow across most of Upstate, according to the state’s fall foliage report. In parts of the Adirondacks and Catskills, some foliage has already turned orange.

But what’s the overall color outlook for the 2021 leaf-peeping season? It depends on the weather, said Taryn Bauerle, a professor with Cornell University’s School of Integrative Plant Science Horticulture Section.

“The warm and wet weather we have been having lately is not conducive to sharp fall foliage colors,” Bauerle said. “If we stay in this weather pattern, fall peak colors will be a little delayed and probably not as vibrant as last year.”

As temperatures fall during autumn, chlorophyll — the chemical that makes leaves green — breaks down, allowing the yellow and orange pigments already in leaves to show, according to the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. Other chemical changes let the red and deep purples in leaves appear, ESF noted.

Sunshine, cool temperatures and dry days are a good recipe for colorful foliage, Don Leopold, a distinguished teaching professor at ESF, recently told NYUp.com. The wet, gloomy weather currently looming over Upstate is not.

“If you have lots of rain and lots of wind, which often happens in a lot of early Octobers, that’s not good,” he said. “Instead of say having two weeks of peak fall foliage on the trees, the leaves (quickly change) and just drop off.”

Fingers crossed for sunny sweater weather, leaf peepers.

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