The Delta variant: Will we have to start wearing masks again?

Dr. Stephen Thomas

Dr. Stephen Thomas of Upstate Medical University in Syracuse is the chief investigator worldwide in Pfizer’s clinical study of the experimental drug.Katrina Tulloch

Syracuse, N.Y. – The highly contagious Delta variant of the novel coronavirus has reversed progress in some states and other countries.

In the U.S., the variant is now responsible for 25% of new Covid-19 cases, and about 10% in New York City. In Los Angeles County, the nation’s largest, residents are being urged to wear masks again as Covid-19 cases surge, primarily because of the variant. And Australia, once the model of Covid control, has gone on lockdown again.

We’re a long way from anything like that happening in New York state or Central New York, where vaccination rates are relatively high, said one of the region’s leading experts, Dr. Stephen Thomas, director of the Upstate Global Health Institute, at Upstate Medical University. We asked Thomas to discuss the Delta variant, what impact it’s having and whether we should be worried about it in Central New York.

Syracuse.com: How concerned should we be about the Delta variant?

Thomas: It’s the real deal and it has the potential to set us back, certainly nationally but also potentially regionally – meaning the Northeast region, not Central New York necessarily.

It looks like it’s at least 60 percent more infectious than the original strain that came out of China. There are at least some signals that it causes more severe infection, but whether it is more severe still needs to be figured out.

What about us? All of our numbers are looking good. Between Crouse and Upstate this is the lowest number of people we have had with Covid since this thing began – less than 10 people, which is incredible. Our total number of cases are down, hospitalizations are down, deaths are down. But we still have a significant percentage of our community who are not immune and are at risk, and that includes everyone under 12 and a lot of those in the 12- to 40-year-old age group.

Q: Should I worry about the variant if I’ve been vaccinated?

A: Data from the field and the show that the Pfizer vaccine and Moderna vaccines can offer protection when you have your full two doses. There is significant protection against getting sick or severely sick or dying from the variant.

If you look at the people who have died in the month of May (nationwide), the vast majority of them – 99% plus – were unvaccinated. States that have lowest rates of vaccination have the highest rates of new cases, of hospitalizations, of deaths. The Delta variant is accounting for the large percentage of those cases.

Q: If I’m fully vaccinated, can I still catch the variant and pass it on?

A: Being vaccinated seems to have a real benefit in terms of your likelihood of being infected and it seems to have a real benefit in terms of your likelihood to pass it on to somebody else, but it’s not zero, for sure. The prospect is still there that if you’re vaccinated you can get infected and not get sick, but there’s still potential you could give it to somebody else.

Q: Do you think we’ll have to go back to wearing masks again?

A: Not in the summer, especially here, where the vaccination rates are good. We’ll be outdoors, and people are a little physically distanced when you’re living here anyway. There’s not a lot of circulation of the virus right now.

When fall comes around, that could all change. If we are going to have a bad time of this, I think it’s going to happen in the fall. If the variant is taking hold, and we plateau with vaccinations and we go back inside, that’s going to be a very dangerous situation if those planets align.

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