Training trends: Macro, micro, and policy issues
Introduction
These are exciting times for learning and development, as a number of trends, many well underway, are accelerating. As an over-arching framework to which these trends relate, we begin by identifying three “mega-trends” that are reshaping organizations and the environment in which work is performed: globalization, technology, and demographic changes/increasing cultural diversity. These mega trends provide a “big tent” that encompasses more specific training trends at the macro, micro, and policy levels. At the macro level of training, we will consider five trends: increasing demands for personal and professional development by job seekers and employees, effects of digital technology on work, structural changes in labor markets, increasing training opportunities for non-standard workers, and training as an important aspect of an employer's brand. At the micro level, we will consider three more trends: better understanding of the requirements for effective learning; the use of short, digital lessons; and options for optimizing learning and preventing skill decay. Finally, with respect to emerging policy issues we will consider training needs in small and medium-sized enterprises, the need for “middle skills”, and vocational education. A final section relates the policy issues to the macro-and micro-level trends discussed earlier.
Trends were identified based on the fulfillment of two or more of the following conditions: (1) published surveys of various groups (e.g., emerging adults, representative samples of the working population); (2) published interviews with subject matter experts; or (3) at least three published articles that cite literature that supports the emergence of a given trend. Treatment of these trends is neither systematic nor exhaustive, but as a long-time observer of emerging changes in the world of work (Cascio, 1995, Cascio, 2010, Cascio, 2014a, Cascio, 2014c, Cascio, 2016, Cascio and Montealegre, 2016, Cascio and Montealegre, 2017), I believe they illustrate the dynamic forces that are currently at work to shape learning and development in the 21st century. Tables presented at the conclusion of each major section – macro, micro- and policy issues – summarize the impact and implications of each trend on organizations and individuals; labor market needs and opportunities; trends in learning and development to address these needs at the macro and micro levels; and implications for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers. Let us begin by examining very briefly the three “mega-trends” identified earlier.
Section snippets
Globalization
Globalization—the ability of any individual or company to compete, connect, exchange, or collaborate globally—is exploding. The ability to digitize so many things, to send them anywhere and to pull them in from everywhere via our mobile phones and the Internet, has unleashed a torrent of global flows of information and knowledge. Global flows of commerce, finance, credit, social networks, and more are interlacing markets, media, central banks, companies, schools, communities, and individuals
Technology
We live in a global world where technology, especially information and communication technology, is changing the manner in which businesses create and capture value, how and where we work, and how we interact and communicate. Consider five technologies that are transforming the very foundations of global business and the organizations that drive it: cloud and mobile computing, big data and machine learning, sensors and intelligent manufacturing, advanced robotics and drones, and clean-energy
Demographic changes and increasing cultural diversity
The number as well as the mix of people available to work is changing rapidly. In the United States, the labor force is aging, as the proportion of the labor force composed of people ages 55 and older rises from 19% in 2010 to 24% in 2050. By 2040 the non-Hispanic white population is projected to drop below 50%, with Hispanics making up more than a quarter of the population, and Asians, African Americans, and other ethnic groups constituting the rest (Toossi, 2012). Globally, the United Nations
Growing demand for personal and professional development
Tight labor markets, products of all three mega trends, make continuing employability a necessity for workers everywhere. In a recent article, Hirsch (2016) identified nine key requirements that emerging adults want in a job. The first of these is opportunities for continuous learning. Emerging adults typically change jobs at least seven times by their late 20s, as they strive to figure out what they like, what they're good at, and where they can fit in and stand out. At a national level,
Better understanding of requirements for effective learning
If training is a competitive necessity, driven by globalization as well as changes in technology and demographics, then the design, delivery, and evaluation of training's effects are more important than ever. So are strategies to limit or prevent decay in what has been learned. Empirical studies clearly show that well-designed training in general, and e-learning in particular, can be effective (Arthur et al., 2003, Cheng and Chen, 2015, Salas et al., 2012). The average effect size, or d, equals
Training needs in small and medium enterprises
In virtually every developed and developing country, such enterprises play a catalytic role in the economic development of nations (Reich, 1992). Their role in producing new jobs, boosting economic output, creating innovations in products and services, and alleviating poverty are well established. UK-based small and medium enterprises, for example, comprise 5 million businesses and employ 15 million people (Wapshott & Mallett, 2016). In the United States, 98% of employment occurs in
Conclusions
This paper is a non-exhaustive review some developments at the macro level (e.g., the changing nature of work, structural changes in labor markets, technological changes that are driving consumer-centric learning); at the micro level (e.g., better understanding of the requirements for effective learning; the use of short, digital lessons; options for optimizing learning and preventing skill decay); and with respect to emerging policy issues (e.g., training needs in small and medium-sized
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