Real Estate and Election: 2020 Consumer Insights

  • Majority of Americans consider it important to live in a place with similar political views
  • About one-in-four respondents feel that their political views align with majority in their community
  • Most Americans have not considered moving somewhere where their political views align with the majority
  • Most people would not consider moving even if their Presidential candidate of choice does not win
  • Majorities in both parties seek to align with their communities
  • Younger Americans are more inclined to let political views influence where they live

This year, we have been at the confluence of major events and changes in our economy and society. We have faced a new viral pandemic, temporary business and housing lock-downs, along with an accompanying economic recession, widespread social unrest and protests, as well as another election cycle. While the Presidential election captures the headlines, there are 470 Congressional seats up for election this November—35 of them in the Senate and 435 in the House of Representatives.

The pandemic-induced quarantine plunged the economy into a deep recession. As we have been working through the recovery process, companies across the country continue to struggle with diminished consumer spending. In turn, many of them are resorting to layoffs in an effort to contain costs, further adding to the strain many Americans feel. Housing is an integral part of the economic equation, and with homes at the center of most peoples’ lives, housing-related policy issues and market dynamics have taken a renewed importance in the public conversations.

Seeking to shine a spotlight on an important aspect of this conversation, realtor.com® partnered with YouGov during the second half of September to survey 2,000 Americans about their political views, whether those views impact where they want to live and their likelihood of moving based on the outcome of the election. In an environment of sharper political polarization, the data show that for many people, their views impact the choices about where to live and buy a home.

Majority of Americans Consider It Important to Live in a Place with Similar Political Views

While a large number of political decisions are made at the federal level, for most people it is those made at the state and local level that make a more visible impact, and have a more direct implication for housing. Property taxes play an important role in communities across the country. They are borne by all property owners and also by renters. They also are directly tied to schools, roads and infrastructure, as well as first-responder services. As such, political decisions centered around some of these issues play an important role in peoples’ location choices.

We found that 55 percent of Americans consider it important to live in a place with people who share their political views. Another 23 percent ranked this choice as “Not very important,” and the remainder were indifferent. Interestingly, the level of importance varies with age. A larger share of young people (18-34 year old) indicated that it was important to live in a place with like-minded people. The share of those who consider it important to be among people of similar political views drops as age groups progress. While 61 percent of 18-34 year olds ranked this issue as important, only 49 percent of those aged 55 and over considered it important. Looking at the data across gender, revealed a near-identical split, with 55 percent of men and 54 percent of women answering that political alignment with their communities was important.

About One-in-Four Respondents Feel that their Political Views Align with Majority in their Community

While more than half of Americans consider it is important for their political views to be mirrored in their communities, a smaller share—42 percent—indicated that to be the case. An additional 28 percent answered that their political views were not aligned with the majority where they live, while 30 percent were unsure. On this issue, a larger share of men (48 percent) felt that their political views were aligned with the majority compared with 37 percent of women. The results also varied across age groups, with 44 percent of respondents in the “55 and over” group feeling in alignment with their community’s political majority versus 43 percent of the “35-54” age group, and 38 percent of the “18-34” age cohort.

Most Americans Have Not Considered Moving Somewhere Where Their Political Views Align with the Majority

Building off the gap between their preferences and community composition, we asked people in the nationally-representative sample if the considered moving to a place where their political views were closer to the community’s majority. Only 20 percent of respondents answered “Yes” to the question, while 59 percent indicated that they had not. Another 21 percent answered that they had not yet considered, but would evaluate the issue after the current election. The answer breakdowns were almost identical across gender, with 59 percent of men and 58 percent of women responding that they had not considered moving for political reason. When analyzed by age cohort, the data highlighted that younger people were relatively more willing to move to be in alignment with the political majority, with 24 percent of 18-34 year olds saying that they had considered a move, compared with 15 percent of those aged 55 and over.

It is likely that along with considering political alignment more important, younger people also have greater flexibility to move, especially in the early stages of their careers. As people age and their life stage changes, schools, career stability and housing choices play a larger role, likely leading to a combination of both better alignment and less need for mobility.

Most People Would Not Consider Moving Even if their Presidential Candidate of Choice Does Not Win

In light of the major issues being debated during this election cycle, we asked survey participants to indicate if they would consider moving to a place that better aligns with their political views in case their Presidential candidate does not win the election. The answers pointed to the fact that most Americans feel connected to their communities beyond political differences, as 64 percent said that they would not move because they like where they live. Only 12 percent answered that they would “definitely consider” moving, and the remainder indicated that they would “consider it.” The share of those who would not consider moving was similar across gender, accounting for 63 percent of men and 66 percent of women. However, the differences became more pronounced across age cohorts, with a dominant 74 percent of Americans aged 55 and over saying that they would not consider moving, compared with 60 percent of those in the “35-54” age group and 55 percent of respondents in the “18-34” age group. Similarly, while only 6 percent of 55 and older said they would definitely consider moving, 18 percent of younger respondents (18-34 year olds) picked the same answer.

Majorities in Both Parties Seek to Align with their Communities

Looking at the survey questions through the lens of political affiliation revealed several nuances. A larger share of those who self-identified as Democrats (63%) responded that they considered it important to live in a community where they political views aligned with the majority, compared with those who identified as Republicans (55%).

Similarly, a relatively larger share of Americans who self-identified as Democrats (14%) answered that they would consider moving somewhere where their political views were better aligned with the community’s, while 12% of them indicated they would wait to see who would win the election. In comparison, only 8 percent of self-identified Republicans mentioned that they would consider moving somewhere where their political views better align, and 7 percent would waiting for the election results.

The election outcome also played a bigger role for Democrats, with 45 percent indicating that they were more likely to consider moving if their candidate does not win the election, versus 28 percent of Republicans.

Housing Implications

This year has seen major shifts in real estate market dynamics and an acceleration in pre-existing trends. Housing markets experienced the impact of the Spring 2020 quarantine, as foot traffic evaporated and transaction activity ground to a halt. However, the arrival of summer and lifting of quarantine restrictions brought home buyers strongly back to the market. The continuing health impact from the quarantine, combined with a widespread technology-assisted remote work reality, brought into focus the need for bigger homes, more space, access to the outdoors and higher quality of life. Fueled by mortgage rates which broke through new record lows ten times this year, buyers moved to buy homes that offered better solutions for the altered reality. In addition, as the largest generational cohort is moving toward the mid-point of its career, Millennials have been looking for affordability and, with growing families, toward communities with good schools, parks and amenities. These shifts have meant a transition away from dense, high-cost downtowns and toward greener suburbs with larger homes and lower price tags.

Amid these shifting trends, many Americans are moving from Democratic urban cities toward suburban and rural communities which lean Republican. While it is too early to tell what the long-term political implications of this migration may be, this survey indicates that younger Americans, who feel more strongly that they want their views to align with those of their community, are more likely to vote not only at the ballot box, but also with their dollars, as they navigate a dynamic economy looking for its footing and a housing market in need of more supply. The imbalance between strong demand and an insufficient supply has pushed prices at double the pace of wage growth, bringing affordability challenges to the forefront, especially for young buyers. With the desire to own a home deeply entrenched in younger cohorts, the reality of market dynamics and affordability will play just as important a role as political views in the makeup and life of communities across the country.

Methodology

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 2,000 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 18th – 24th September 2020. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all U.S. adults (aged 18+).

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