Odds to win Georgia Governor race between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams

The rematch of Georgia’s previous Governor’s race between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams has been one of the most-watched elections of the 2022 midterm cycle. But while Abrams and the blue team turnout machine she helped build was lauded for the work they did on behalf of both of Georgia’s Senate candidates in runoffs in 2020, it looks like Abrams herself will go down to defeat yet again.

While this was considered a very close race, Abrams is lagging both in the polls and on the betting markets. It will take a true turning of the Peach State blue to have Kemp not get re-elected to a second term. Kemp defeated Donald Trump’s preferred candidate in the primary, and that separation from the 45th President has seemed to serve him well in the re-election bid.

We’re using two websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

Both sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met.

Odds to win Georgia Governor’s race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Abrams .06
PredictIt R: Kemp .93

PolyMarket D: Abrams .04
PolyMarket R: Kemp .96

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Abrams .07
PredictIt R: Kemp .93

PolyMarket D: Abrams .08
PolyMarket R: Kemp .92

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Abrams .08
PredictIt R: Kemp .93

PolyMarket D: Abrams .09
PolyMarket R: Kemp .91

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Abrams .08
PredictIt R: Kemp .94

PolyMarket D: Abrams .09
PolyMarket R: Kemp .91

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Abrams .08
PredictIt R: Kemp .94

PolyMarket D: Abrams .11
PolyMarket R: Kemp .89

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Abrams .09
PredictIt R: Kemp .93

PolyMarket D: Abrams .11
PolyMarket R: Kemp .89

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

Nov. 1

FiveThirtyEight gives Kemp a 91 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.