New UMass Amherst Poll Finds Just 13% of Republicans Support Juneteenth as a Federal Holiday

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Image

As the nation approaches the Juneteenth holiday next Monday, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll on issues facing Black Americans has found that while a majority of Americans understand the history of Juneteenth, only 42% – and just 13% of Republicans – support it being a federal holiday.

“In 2021, President Joe Biden – with strong bi-partisan support from the U.S. Congress –made Juneteenth a national holiday to recognize and celebrate the day in 1865 when Major General Gordon Granger delivered the message to the last remaining slaves in Galveston, Texas that the Union had won the Civil War and that chattel slavery was over,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “While the U.S. Senate unanimously voted in favor of the holiday and only 14 Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the bill, many Americans still express trepidation over making the day a federal holiday, with just four in 10 Americans supporting the decision to make Juneteenth a holiday and only 13% of Republicans and Trump voters supporting this decision.”

The poll found that more respondents support teaching the history and significance of the holiday in public schools than celebrating it as a holiday – 57% percent of the survey’s respondents expressed support in teaching the history of the holiday, including 53% of white respondents. Once again, however, the poll found a significant gap among Republicans, conservatives and Trump supporters’ views of teaching the holiday.

“There is little support among Republicans and conservative Americans to teach children in the nation’s public schools about Juneteenth,” Nteta says. “In yet another chapter in the nation’s culture war over how the history of race is taught in public schools, we find evidence of a stark partisan divide with close to nine in 10 Democrats, liberals and Biden voters supporting the teaching of the history and significance of Juneteenth, while less than three in 10 Republicans, conservatives and Trump voters express support for this instruction in the nation’s schools.”

“Partisan and racial sectarianism is poisoning conversations about how to commemorate and teach the nation’s history in America’s schools,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Democrats and liberals overwhelmingly support making Juneteenth a federal holiday, but Republicans and conservatives staunchly oppose this. Similarly, while Democrats and liberals are nearly unanimous in support for teaching about the significance of Juneteenth, this idea only enjoys support among a quarter of Republicans and conservatives. It’s a huge obstacle to addressing present racial injustices when Americans can’t even agree on a shared understanding of our past.”

In addition to surveying respondents about Juneteenth, the new poll of 1,133 Americans – which purposefully oversampled African Americans – also asked numerous questions about the legacies of slavery and Jim Crow, views surrounding racial issues such as the Black Lives Matter movement, the push for reparations, the current state of race relations in America and the prospects of improved relations in the coming decade.

“You simply cannot understand American politics without contending with the role of racial attitudes in public opinion,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “This survey focuses a powerful lens on issues surrounding race in America.”
 

Race relations and Black political representation and views

“In the aftermath of the 2020 election which saw former Republican president Donald Trump garner a surprising share of the African American vote, some questioned the popularity and long-term vitality of the Democratic Party in the black community,” Nteta says. “Our results suggest that the rumors of the death of African American allegiance to the Democratic Party and to President Joe Biden have been greatly exaggerated, as six in 10 blacks believe that the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden represent the African American community well. This support becomes all the more telling when juxtaposed with the tepid perceptions of the representation offered by former President Trump (23%) and the Republican Party (24%) expressed by African Americans. It remains clear that the GOP has a long way to go if it is ever to regain its standing with the black community as the Party of Lincoln.”

Black respondents also expressed weariness about the Supreme Court, with just one-third (33%) saying that the nine jurists on the nation’s highest court represent the interests of the Black community well. Overall, the poll’s respondents were evenly split, 50-50, on the court’s representation of the Black community.

The poll’s respondents were also closely split on whether the United States has “made a lot of progress toward achieving equality between white Americans and people of color,” with 51% saying that the nation has, while 49% said the country still “has a long way to go to achieve equality.”

“White Americans on the whole are more bullish about the contemporary status of race relations in the United States, with 58% of white respondents expressing the belief that the nation has made a lot of progress toward the racial equality outlined in the nation’s Declaration of Independence and envisioned by Martin Luther King Jr. in his famous ‘I Have a Dream’ speech,” Nteta says. “However, among African Americans, and people of color more generally, the picture is less rosy. Eighty percent of Black respondents and majorities of both Latinos (54%) and Asians (57%) believe that the nation still has a long way to go to achieve true racial equality.”

“What explains this stark racial divide?” Rhodes asks rhetorically. “A big part of the explanation is that African Americans are much more likely than Americans overall to perceive that they face continuing structural barriers to equality. African Americans are much more likely to believe that they continue to suffer from the legacies of slavery (91% among Blacks, 56% among all respondents) and Jim Crow (94% Blacks, 65% all respondents), and that they face ongoing discrimination and lack of access to good schools and jobs. In contrast, many other Americans seem to downplay these continuing challenges.”

“Writing in the early part of the 20th century, the famed Black intellectual W.E.B. DuBois predicted that the defining problem of the 20th century would be the ‘problem of the color line,’” Nteta says. “As the nation continues to grapple with the inability to solve the persistent problem of racial inequality two decades into the 21st century, majorities of Americans recognize the lasting impact of the institution of slavery and Jim Crow on the status and well-being of African Americans today. Whether there exists the political interest, will, and leadership to do something to rectify the legacy of the nation’s racial past and to solve the ‘problem of the color line’ remains to be seen.”

“Democrats tend to be relatively optimistic about the future of race relations in the United States, while Republicans are much more pessimistic, with almost half (46%) believing race relations will get worse,” Rhodes says. “This racial pessimism sheds a lot of light on the ongoing appeal of Trumpism among Republicans, despite his many legal woes. Trump’s message has always centered around racial hostility and antagonism toward immigrants. Given that so many Republicans are pessimistic about the future, it’s no surprise he remains the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.”

“Black Americans highlight key opportunity gaps, which are the springboards for social advancement in U.S. society – good schools and good paying jobs,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Eighty-five percent say that less access to good schools contributes to disadvantages that African Americans face. Ninety percent say that about access to high paying jobs. These are bread-and-butter issues that the nation’s leaders need to focus on to improve equality for Black Americans. At the same time, however, Black respondents to the poll also point to social factors affecting African Americans. They appear somewhat more likely than the national average to say that family instability and lack of good role models contribute to the disadvantages African Americans face – 85% say family instability affects disadvantages, compared to 77% of all Americans, and 73% say lack of good role models affects disadvantages, compared to 67% of all Americans.”

“Given the continued racial disparities in wealth, home ownership, unemployment, maternal health and life expectancy – coupled with efforts by numerous states to remove discussions of race from public school curricula and the rise in public expressions of white supremacy – it is by no means a shock that people of color have doubts that the nation will reach the fabled mountaintop of King’s dreams anytime soon,” Nteta says.

La Raja notes, however, that while “Blacks overwhelmingly say the U.S. still has a long way to go to achieve racial equality, they appear to remain optimistic that the situation will get better. A clear majority, 57% said things will get better in the next 10 years rather than worse, and 61% of all Americans feel the same way. These figures reflect a belief in positive change on a defining national issue among Americans, including Blacks, and a mark of hopefulness that would be tragic to squander at this moment,” he says.
 

Reparations and other federal assistance policies

“A number of states, localities, colleges and universities are exploring the viability of a reparations program designed to address the legacy and impact of the institution of slavery on the descendants of slaves in the United States,” Nteta says. “Across both substantive policies like cash payments and housing assistance, as well as more symbolic efforts like official apologies, Americans are more supportive of reparation policies directed at the living victims of state sanctioned racial discrimination during Jim Crow than policies focused on the descendants of slaves. With the movement for reparations growing across the country, success may be found in convincing the nation to atone for its more recent past of racial discrimination and violence.”

“A majority of Americans – 57%– say that descendants of slaves are owed a formal apology from the federal government for the institution of slavery,” says La Raja. “On the other hand, they are not enthusiastic about material forms of compensation – just 35% say the federal government should make cash payments to descendants of slave, and 42% say housing assistance is warranted. And the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans on policies to address racial equality could hardly be starker: 67% of Democrats support housing assistance to descendants of slaves, while just 14% of Republicans do; 55% of Democrats support cash payments compared to just 11% of Republicans. Even a policy of issuing a formal apology shows a large gap – 81% of Democrats are in favor of the federal government making a formal apology compared to 23% of Republicans. For each of these three policies, independents have a majority only in favor of an apology.”

“In making the case for reparations, a number of prominent supporters of the policy argue that cash payments made to the descendants of slaves will once and for all address – and eventually solve – the nation’s racial wealth gap that finds the average white family holding eight times the wealth of the typical African American family in the U.S.,” Nteta says. “However, given the controversy surrounding this policy, the likelihood that such a policy will pass at the national level remains slim. Given this political reality, others have turned to more inclusive policies, such as ‘baby bonds,’ to potentially address the racial wealth gap. Unlike reparations, these baby bonds are relatively more popular as a plurality of Americans (47%) support the provision of federally insured and managed bonds to every child born in the United States. This program is also attractive among African Americans, with two-thirds of Blacks expressing support. If proponents of reparations are indeed interested in addressing the racial wealth gap, a more viable and politically palatable answer may not be found in direct cash payments to the descendants of slaves, but in direct cash investments in the future of the youngest Americans.”

“Americans appear to prefer universal policies that might also benefit African Americans,” La Raja says. “While majorities oppose material forms of compensation, like targeting cash or housing assistance to descendants of slaves, they are more open to policies where everyone benefits. The most popular one we polled was providing free breakfast and lunch to all K-12 students who attend public schools – 69% of Americans favor this policy, as do 76% of Blacks. The survey results point to public resistance for targeted assistance to African Americans.”

Black Lives Matter and police reforms

“Reflecting the reality that they bear the brunt of police violence, African Americans are much more supportive of police reforms than are other Americans,” Rhodes says. “But the Black Lives Matter movement that emerged to confront this injustice seems to have had a major impact on public opinion overall. Today, there are cross-racial majorities for significant police reforms, including banning the use of choke holds, prohibiting officers from turning off body cameras, and allowing individuals to sue officers who are accused of misconduct or excessive force. In a nation that has historically put the police on a pedestal, this is a significant shift in the public’s attitudes.”

Ultimately, Nteta concludes that, “In the wake of scandals concerning the financial dealings of leaders of the Black Lives Matter movement, President Joe Biden raucously calling for increased funding of the nation’s police departments in his 2022 State of the Union, and the continued disproportionate stoppage, arrest, and killing of African Americans by the nation’s police forces, have led many to declare the Black Lives Matter movement a failed social movement. However, in the eyes of African Americans, the BLM remains a potent political force for change with growing majorities of Blacks supporting both the strategies and tactics (52%) and the goals of the movement (59%). Reports of the death of the BLM in the black community it seems have been greatly exaggerated.”
 

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,133 respondents nationwide was conducted by YouGov May 31-June 8, 2023. YouGov interviewed 1,298 respondents, including 1,165 main sample respondents, and an oversample of 133 African Americans. The main sample was matched down to a set of 1,000, and then combined with the oversample to form a final dataset of 1,133 respondents. The main sample was matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched main sample and the unmatched oversample were then weighted to their respective frame using propensity scores. The frame used for the oversample is similar to the previously described frame from the main sample, with the main difference being that it includes only African Americans. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. Both propensity score functions included age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame, and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for the main sample were then post-stratified on 2020 Presidential vote choice, followed by a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories). Meanwhile, the weights for the oversample were post-stratified on 2020 Presidential vote choice, a three-way stratification between gender, age (4-categories) and education (4-categories), and finally an individual stratification on region.

Then, the matched and weighted main sample and oversample datasets were combined into one. From there, the proportion of African Americans was weighted down to produce the final combined weight. After that, a subset of this combined dataset was taken so that only observations involving African Americans remained. This African American subset of the combined dataset was weighted to the same frame as the oversample using propensity scores. The unmatched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, education and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame, and post-stratified according to these deciles. Finally, the weights were then post-stratified on 2020 Presidential vote choice, followed by the same three-way stratification mentioned earlier, in order to produce the final African American weight.

The margin of error within this poll is 3.4%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll