Biden still facing low approval ratings despite easing inflation, midterm success

WASHINGTON (TND) — President Joe Biden is still facing low approval numbers from the American public as the new year sets in and he prepares to give a State of the Union address next month to a split Congress that is essentially certain to stall the remainder of the legislative agenda he came into office hoping to enact.

A pair of polls last week found Biden is still underwater with voters going into the year even as gas prices and inflation have fallen.

A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found Biden’s net approval rating at 44%, an improvement from 40% in October. He has maintained support among Democrats while also adding some support among independents and Republicans. The January survey also found younger voters that previously had poor attitudes toward the president have started to have more optimism toward his presidency.

It comes after inflation started to abate in recent months and the unemployment rate reached all-time lows as businesses have been able to keep hiring and maintaining payrolls despite some fears of a recession.

“The real issue is always the economy,” said Ray La Raja, professor of political science at the UMass Amherst and associate director of the UMass Poll. “Is it going to stay on track? It's doing OK, inflation is coming down. What are we going to have? Are we going to fall into recession?”

Momentum was seemingly moving in Biden’s favor after the midterm elections and the rollout of some of the last Congress’ bipartisan accomplishments, but he is now facing an investigation by a special counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland into his handling of classified documents.

Several sets of classified documents have been found at Biden’s home and an office he used for a think tank associated with the University of Pennsylvania. Republicans have been quick to jump on Biden for mishandling the documents and there are some initial indications that the investigation could be giving voters some trouble.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found two-thirds of Americans said they are following the news about the discovery of the documents very or somewhat closely. Seventy-one percent of them also said the issue is at least somewhat serious.

It’s not clear yet how the documents investigation will impact him, but Biden’s approval rating declined in the Quinnipiac poll compared to the month before, sinking to 36% as voters give him low marks on the economy, immigration issues and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.

"President Biden's numbers saw an encouraging uptick after the midterms, then a slide back when classified documents were discovered in his residence. Is that a crippling development or just a bump in the road? Impossible to say," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Alloy said.

Biden will have a chance to speak to Americans in a couple weeks when he gives his State of the Union address on Feb. 7, where he will get to present his vision of how to move the country forward.

It will be his first time since taking office giving the address to a split Congress, which is likely to shape what kind of message he will deliver.

“He's going to talk about how he's going to extend his hands and say ‘I want to work in a bipartisan way I said I was going to be a bipartisan president and I was, and I said I was going to try to deal with some of these problems,’” La Raja said. “That’s gonna be the strategy. It's not going to be a bold vision for the future.”

His address could also serve as a blueprint for his 2024 general election campaign strategy with themes including abortion, gun control and his bipartisan accomplishments. Biden has not formally announced or filed to run for a second term but has indicated he plans on seeking reelection and is expected to do so without a primary challenge.

Despite his overall poor approval ratings and previous surveys that have found voters clamoring for new faces at the top of the ticket on both sides of the aisle, Biden is still the top option among Democrats when asked to rank potential candidates.

Thirty-one percent of Democrats in the UMass poll ranked the president as their top choice for 2024, holding a double-digit advantage over all other potential candidates.

“The election is a year off so things could change rapidly, but I think if I was in Biden's camp, I would say, ‘OK, we're in a decent position for the renomination, certainly. And for the general election, we haven't made major mistakes. We've passed some important stuff,’” La Raja said. “I think they're in a pretty good position right now.”