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Donald Trump Extends Lead in 2024 GOP Primary Race in Massachusetts, According to New UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll

The former president leads Florida Gov. DeSantis by 41 points among Republicans, while President Biden continues to lead Democratic field in latest statewide poll

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Despite facing indictments for 34 felonies in New York District Court, and with the possibility of further indictments looming in multiple jurisdictions, former President Donald Trump has increased his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new statewide University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

Trump now garners 59% of GOP support, leading DeSantis (18%) by 41 points. Former Vice President Mike Pence places a distant third with 10% support among those surveyed. Trump holds wide leads over DeSantis among nearly every category of Republican respondent, save for those with post-graduate degrees, among whom DeSantis holds a slim 51-49 edge.

“The past year has seen an upheaval in the Massachusetts GOP with arguably the most popular governor in the history of the commonwealth and the most prominent Republican in the state, Charlie Baker, deciding against seeking a third term in office, the inability of a lone Republican to win statewide office in the 2022 election and the subsequent ousting of Mass. GOP chairman Jim Lyons,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Through all of this turmoil, one thing has remained constant: Republicans in the Bay State remain loyal to former President Donald Trump.”

Tatishe Nteta

Through all of this turmoil, one thing has remained constant: Republicans in the Bay State remain loyal to former President Donald Trump.

Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science and director of the UMass Amherst Poll


“Ron DeSantis has often been presented as an alternative to Trump, but so far Massachusetts Republicans aren’t buying it,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Trump seems to be consolidating his lead as the frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. It appears that, in the short term, Trump’s recent indictment in the state of New York for allegedly falsifying business reports is helping him among Republicans, who view the indictment as a form of persecution. It remains to be seen, though, whether Massachusetts Republicans will stick with Trump over the long run.”

“Donald Trump completely dominates among Massachusetts Republicans,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll.  “We didn’t parse whether his legal battles help or hurt him, but I’m speculating they rallied support for him – at least in the short term. The next preferred candidate is Ron DeSantis, but in a head-to-head matchup in the Massachusetts Republican primary Trump would more than double the DeSantis vote, 68-32%. DeSantis has to hope Trump stumbles badly or, for some reason, leaves the nomination contest, because he is the clear second pick. While DeSantis has done things as the governor of Florida to attract national attention, he has not announced his campaign and entered the fray against Trump. His numbers will likely rise once he commits and occupies the national stage with Trump and others.”

ray la raja

DeSantis has to hope Trump stumbles badly or, for some reason, leaves the nomination contest, because he is the clear second pick.

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science and co-director of the UMass Amherst Poll


La Raja also notes, “Even the popular governor next door, Chris Sununu, doesn’t come close to beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup, losing to Trump 81-19.”

“Sununu has made waves in recent weeks as he explores a potential run for the 2024 Republican nomination, going as far as to declaring that former President Trump cannot win the general election in 2024 and boldly asserting that he, and not DeSantis, is the most fiscally conservative governor in the nation,” Nteta says. “As Sununu mulls a bid for the White House, our results suggest that Republicans in the Bay State do not share in his negative assessments of the two Republican frontrunners. If Sununu has any chance of emerging as the Republican nominee in 2024, he will need to shore up support among Republicans in the state and our results suggest that it will likely be a quixotic quest.”

Biden Still Leading Among Democrats, as Warren Controls Senate Re-Nomination

President Joe Biden continues to hold a lead for re-nomination among Democratic respondents surveyed.

“Nearly half the Democratic voters in Massachusetts feel okay electing men in their 80s to the presidency,” says La Raja. “Biden, who would be 82 at start of his second term, still leads the pack for the Democratic nomination with 28%. This reflects no change since we polled last summer in June. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who would be 83 at the start of the next presidency, takes second place, and he has seen his numbers rise from 14 to 21% compared to 10 months ago.”

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (15%) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (12%) round out the remaining potential contenders for the nomination, with no one else rating double-digit support.

“For the Democratic Party, 2024 looks a lot like 2020 when Joe Biden in the waning days of the primary campaign surged to beat Senator Bernie Sanders and the commonwealth’s own Senator Elizabeth Warren,” Nteta says. “If the election were held today, Biden would once again top both Sanders and Warren, with a plurality of the state’s Democratic voters pledging to support the 80-year-old’s fourth and likely final run for the White House.”

Nteta notes, however, that “If Biden should choose against seeking a second term in office, Democrats in the Bay State are poised to turn to a familiar face with Warren emerging as both the preferred second and third choice of the commonwealth’s Democratic electorate. Whether Warren’s brand of progressive politics will play well with Democratic primary voters outside the state remains an open question, but Warren’s electoral base here in Massachusetts remains strong and if an open presidential primary election were held today, Warren might do something that she failed to do in 2020: win her own state.”

Meanwhile, Warren holds a wide lead for reelection to the Senate. Nteta notes that in Warren’s recent announcement of her intention to seek a third term as senator, “she featured a plethora of prominent Bay State Democrats that included Rep. Ayanna Pressley,” who many have speculated about a future run for the U.S. Senate.

“While Warren’s announcement and Pressley’s official support for Warren’s candidacy ends any discussion of a primary challenge from Pressley,” Nteta says, “Warren’s lackluster showing in the 2020 presidential election has led some to speculate that newly minted Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss could seek to challenge Warren for her Senate seat in 2024. Our results suggest that Warren remains a popular and formidable opponent among the Democratic electorate as seven in 10 Democratic voters would support Warren in a hypothetical Democratic primary matchup against Auchincloss. With a Republican challenger to Warren unlikely to gain traction in the increasingly blue state of Massachusetts, the road to re-election looks likely for Warren in 2024.”

Support for Election Reforms

The poll once again surveyed respondents’ views on a slate of potential election reforms.

“The most popular election reform is to make Election Day a state holiday,” La Raja says. “More than two-thirds (68%) of Massachusetts voters favor this, and many of them feel strongly about it. Same-day registration is also very popular with 64% support, especially among young people (89%) who tend to move around and forget to register at their new home.”

“Massachusetts residents strongly support giving voters the opportunity to register and vote on Election Day, and this support has increased over the past year,” Rhodes says. “Although the commonwealth has relatively good access to the ballot, it lacks this important policy, which research shows increases voter turnout, particularly among younger voters. Now might be a good time for leaders on Beacon Hill to embrace this important policy.”

jesse rhodes

Massachusetts residents strongly support giving voters the opportunity to register and vote on Election Day, and this support has increased over the past year... Now might be a good time for leaders on Beacon Hill to embrace this important policy.

Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science and co-director of the UMass Amherst Poll


The poll also asked about three additional potential reforms for the first time, extending the right to vote to incarcerated individuals, lowering the voting age to 16 and offering vouchers to registered voters that can be donated to candidates.

“Could Massachusetts become the third state – after fellow New England states Vermont and Maine – to allow currently incarcerated individuals to vote?” Rhodes asks. “It’s not completely out of the question. In our most recent poll, 49% either strongly or somewhat approve of this idea, and 12% are undecided. Given the recent attention to voting rights restoration for individuals convicted of a felony in states like Florida, it’s conceivable that Massachusetts residents might come around to the idea of enfranchising currently incarcerated people.”

“Several municipalities, like Seattle, have tried to finance their elections by giving four $25 vouchers to residents that they can allocate to candidates,” La Raja says. “In Massachusetts this idea for public financing is not popular, at least not yet; 53% of voters oppose it and 29% support it.”

As for lowering the voting age, La Raja adds, “Few residents think it is wise to change the voting age from 18 to 16. Just one in four voters think this is a good idea. Keep in mind, however, we didn’t poll 16-year-olds.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll of 700 respondents statewide was conducted by YouGov March 28-April 5. YouGov interviewed 821 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified by 2016 and 2020 Presidential vote choice and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight.

The margin of error within this poll is 4.7%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll