Changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency
| 2016 State Legislative Elections | |
|---|---|
2017 »
« 2015
| |
 | |
| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
| Election dates | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
In 83 of the 99 state legislative chambers, the Republican Party held more seats following the 2016 general election than it did after the general election in 2008.
During President Barack Obama's (D) presidency, Democrats lost a net 948 state legislative seats, the largest loss of Democratic seats during any presidency since at least 1921. Twenty-nine state legislative chambers in 19 states flipped from Democratic to Republican control compared to the start of Obama's presidency. In ten states these flips resulted in the creation of Republican trifectas, where Republicans controlled both chambers as well as the governorship. Democrats did not gain total control of any chambers by the end of Obama's presidency that they did not already control at its start, however, the Alaska House of Representatives flipped from Republican control to a bipartisan coalition following the 2016 elections.
The loss of 948 Democrat-held state legislative seats was the largest loss of the president's party's state legislative seats since the Herbert Hoover (R) administration, which saw a loss of a net 1,662 Republican state legislative seats from 1929 to 1933. Obama's and Hoover's administrations saw the largest loss of Democratic and Republican state legislative seats, respectively.
On this page you will find:
- A comparison of net changes in state legislative seats by presidency from 1921 to 2017.
- Lists of the largest gains and losses by chamber for Democrats during Obama's presidency.
- An analysis of state legislative chambers that flipped party control during Obama's presidency.
- An overview of party margin changes by state.
- Historical partisan control of state legislative seats since 1921.
Methodology
This analysis uses historical information to compare changes in state legislative seats between all presidencies since 1921. Ballotpedia combined the presidencies of Warren G. Harding (R) and Calvin Coolidge (R), John F. Kennedy (D) and Lyndon B. Johnson (D), and Richard Nixon (R) and Gerald Ford (R). In each of these instances, one president was elected and held office until the following midterm election year before leaving office early either due to death or resignation. The presidencies of Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) and Harry Truman (D) are not combined since Roosevelt died and Truman took office in 1945, more than a year before the following midterm election.
Partisan totals in this analysis represent those as a result of regularly-scheduled elections. They do not take into account any special elections or other changes that may occur between such elections. If a chamber does not hold even-year elections for all members every two years, the results of the most recent regularly-scheduled election are pulled forward and used as an estimate for any off-years. In the graphics below, "Other" encompasses independent, third party, or vacant seats. It also includes legislators, for whom Ballotpedia could not determine a party affiliation either due to lack of information or because of a chamber's nonpartisan status.
As a result, totals displayed in this analysis may not directly match those shown elsewhere on Ballotpedia. Click here to view a previous focused on post-World War II two-term presidencies.
Net changes compared by presidency
Use the table below to view comparisons of state legislative seat changes by presidency from 1921 to 2017.
Largest gains and losses of the president's party
Democratic gains
During Obama's presidency, Democrats had a net gain of state legislative seats in nine of the country's 99 state legislative chambers.
The largest gains in terms of total number of seats came in the California House of Representatives and New Jersey House of Representatives. In both, Democrats gained four seats. The largest gain in terms of percentage of seats came in the Hawaii State Senate, where Democrats' control increased by eight percentage points.
The following table lists the top five state legislative chambers in terms of largest Democratic gains during Obama's presidency. The left columns show the largest gains in terms of total number of seats gained. These are shown as raw numbers. The right columns show the largest gains in terms of percentage of seats gained relative to the size of the given chamber. These are shown as percentage point increases.
| Largest Democratic gains from 2009 to 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total seats | Percentage of seats | |||||
| Chamber | Gains | Chamber | Gains | |||
| California House of Representatives New Jersey House of Representatives |
+4 | Hawaii State Senate | +8.0 | |||
| California State Senate Hawaii State Senate |
+2 | California House of Representatives California State Senate New Jersey House of Representatives |
+5.0 | |||
| Arizona House of Representatives Arizona State Senate Delaware House of Representatives Florida State Senate New Jersey State Senate |
+1 | Arizona State Senate | +3.3 | |||
| New Jersey State Senate Florida State Senate |
+2.5 | |||||
| Delaware House of Representatives | +2.4 | |||||
Democratic losses
During Obama's presidency, Democrats had a net loss of state legislative seats in 84 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. The largest loss in terms of total number of seats came in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, where Democrats lost 51 seats. The largest loss in terms of percentage of seats came in the Arkansas State Senate, where Democrats' control decreased by 51.4 percentage points.
The following table lists the top five state legislative chambers in terms of largest Democratic losses during Obama's presidency. The left columns show the largest losses in terms of total number of seats lost. These are shown as raw numbers. The right columns show the largest losses in terms of percentage of seats lost relative to the size of the given chamber. These are shown as percentage point decreases.
| Largest Democratic losses from 2009 to 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total seats | Percentage of seats | |||||
| Chamber | Losses | Chamber | Losses | |||
| New Hampshire House of Representatives | -51 | Arkansas State Senate | -51.4 | |||
| Arkansas House of Representatives | -44 | Arkansas House of Representatives | -44.0 | |||
| Connecticut House of Representatives | -35 | Alabama State Senate | -42.9 | |||
| West Virginia House of Delegates | -34 | West Virginia State Senate | -41.2 | |||
| Minnesota House of Representatives | -30 | Louisiana State Senate | -35.9 | |||
Chamber flips
Democratic flips
Democrats did not gain control of any chambers by the end of Obama's presidency that they did not already control at its start. However, the Alaska House of Representatives flipped from Republican control to a bipartisan coalition consisting of 17 Democrats, three Republicans, and two independents as a result of the 2016 election. The table below shows the flip in that chamber by comparing partisan control in 2009 to partisan control in 2017.
| Democratic state legislative chamber flips during the Obama presidency | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Partisan control (2009) |
Partisan control (2017) |
Net change | |||
| Alaska House of Representatives | 18 - 22 | 22 - 18 | I+2[1] | |||
Republican flips
Republicans controlled 29 state legislative chambers by the end of Obama's presidency that they did not control at its start. This includes the Alaska State Senate, which, at the start of Obama's presidency, was controlled by a bipartisan coalition before becoming a Republican majority.
Ten Republican trifectas were created and in place by the end of Obama's presidency as a result of these flips.[2]
- Alabama: Republicans won control of the state Senate and state House in 2010. Republicans held control of the governorship throughout Obama's presidency.
- Arkansas: Republicans won control of the state Senate and state House in 2012 and the governorship in 2014.
- Indiana: Republicans won control of the state House in 2010. Republicans held control of the state Senate and governorship throughout Obama's presidency.
- Iowa: Republicans won control of the governorship and state House in 2010 and the state Senate in 2016.
- Kentucky: Republicans won control of the governorship in 2014 and the state House in 2016. Republicans held control of the state Senate throughout Obama's presidency.
- Michigan: Republicans won control of the governorship and state House in 2010. Republicans held control of the state Senate throughout Obama's presidency.
- Mississippi: Republicans won control of the state Senate and state House in 2011. Republicans held control of the governorship throughout Obama's presidency.
- New Hampshire: Republicans won control of the state Senate in 2010, the state House in 2014, and the governorship in 2016.
- Ohio: Republicans won control of the governorship and state House in 2010. Republicans held control of the state Senate throughout Obama's presidency.
- Wisconsin: Republicans won control of the governorship, state Senate, and state House in 2010.
The table below lists the 29 chambers flipped by Republicans by comparing partisan control in 2009 to partisan control in 2017.
Overall state legislative margin changes
During Obama's presidency, Republicans saw positive margin changes, either by increasing an already-existing majority or narrowing/flipping a Democratic majority, in 45 states. Democrats saw positive margin changes in four states. Nebraska's officially nonpartisan legislature was not included in this analysis.
The largest margin changes in Republicans' favor came in Arkansas, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. In Arkansas, Democrats held a 98-36 majority in the state legislature at the start of Obama's presidency, a D+62 majority. By 2017, Republicans flipped control of the legislature and held a 99-36 majority, an R+63 margin.
The only margin changes in Democrats' favor came in California, New Jersey, Arizona, and Hawaii. In California, Democrats held a 76-43 majority in the state legislature at the start of Obama's presidency, a D+33 margin. By 2017, Democrats increased their majority to 82-38, a D+44 margin.
Historical partisan control
The table below shows the partisan control of all state legislative seats between 1921 and 2017 broken down by two-year increments to correspond with the aftermaths of even-year general elections.
The three largest shifts in partisan control followed elections in 1932, 1922, and 1958, resulting in Democratic gains.
- The largest shift followed the 1932 presidential election when Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover (R) during the Great Depression. Democrats held 1,149 more state legislative seats in 1933, a 14 percentage point increase. This gave Democrats control of a true majority of state legislative seats, which would continue until the 1946 midterm elections, the first following Roosevelt's death in 1945.
- The second-largest shift followed the 1922 midterm elections during Warren G. Harding's (R) term in office. Democrats held 962 more state legislative seats at the start of 1923 than they did in 1921. Before the midterm elections, Democrats controlled 34% of state legislative seats, the party's lowest level of control at any point between 1921 and 2021.
- The third-largest shift followed the 1958 midterm elections during Dwight Eisenhower's (R) second term in office. Democrats held 758 more state legislative seats at the start of 1959 than they did in 1957, a shift of ten percentage points in the party's favor.
Ballotpedia defines peak control as the point where one party held its largest percentage share of state legislative seats. Both party's peak levels of control corresponded with the election of a president of their party. Democrats' peak control followed Jimmy Carter's (D) election in 1976, the first presidential election following Watergate. Democrats controlled 67.6% (5,116) of state legislative seats. Republicans' peak control followed Harding's election in 1920 following the end of World War I. Republicans controlled 62.2% (4,637) of state legislative seats.
Previous analysis
Ballotpedia's previous analysis of changes in state legislative seats during Obama's presidency included mid-cycle changes such as special elections. The results of this analysis can be view by clicking [Show more] below.
Introduction
Last updated on January 31, 2017
In 82 of 99 state legislative chambers (82.3 percent), the Republican Party held more seats in January 2017 than it did in January 2009.
Between 1944 and the end of the second term of President George W. Bush (R) in January 2009, the political party of an outgoing two-term president or consecutive political party administration lost an average of 450 state legislative seats. During President Obama's (D) two terms in office, Democrats experienced a net loss of 968 state legislative seats, the largest net loss of state legislative seats in this category since World War II.[4] The second-largest loss occurred following Dwight D. Eisenhower's two terms in office, when Republicans were handed a net loss of 843 state legislative seats. President Ronald Reagan (R) was the only president to increase his party's number of state legislative seats over his two terms in office, gaining six total seats across all 50 state legislatures.[5]
Democratic losses in state legislative seats
During Obama's tenure, Democrats lost members in 82 of the 99 state legislative chambers across the country. These losses were most visible in both chambers of the Arkansas and West Virginia state legislatures as well as the state senate chambers in Alabama and Oklahoma.
The following table illustrates Democrats' five largest losses in state legislative seats during President Obama's two terms in office. Rankings were adjusted to account for varying sizes of legislative chambers.
| Top five Democratic losses in state legislative seats, 2009-2017 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats lost | |
| Arkansas State Senate | 18 | |
| West Virginia State Senate | 16 | |
| Arkansas House of Representatives | 46 | |
| West Virginia House of Representatives | 43 | |
| Oklahoma State Senate | 16 | |
Democratic gains in state legislative seats
Over the same period of time, Democrats gained members in eight state legislative chambers. These gains occurred in both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature, the state senates in Arizona, Hawaii and Florida, as well as the state houses in Delaware and California.
The following table illustrates Democratic gains in state legislative seats during President Obama's tenure:
| Democratic gains in state legislative seats, 2009-2017 | |
|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats gained |
| Hawaii State Senate | 2 |
| California House of Representatives | 4 |
| New Jersey House of Representatives | 4 |
| Arizona State Senate | 1 |
| California State Senate | 1 |
| Florida State Senate | 1 |
| New Jersey State Senate | 1 |
| Delaware House of Representatives | 1 |
Democratic and Republican gains in state legislative seats
The Democratic gains in state legislative seats were meager, especially compared to Republican gains over the same period. While Democrats picked up a total of 15 state legislative seats for an overall net loss of 968 seats, Republicans acquired 965 state legislative seats for an overall net gain of 950 seats.
The following table displays the top Democratic and Republican gains in state legislative chambers. Rankings were adjusted to account for varying sizes of legislative chambers.
| Gains in state legislative seats, 2009-2017 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Republican | ||
| Chamber | Seats gained | Chamber | Seats gained |
| Hawaii State Senate | 2 | Arkansas State Senate | 18 |
| California House of Representatives | 4 | West Virginia State Senate | 16 |
| New Jersey House of Representatives | 4 | Arkansas House of Representatives | 47 |
| Arizona State Senate | 1 | West Virginia House of Representatives | 42 |
| California State Senate | 1 | Alabama State Senate | 13 |
See also
Data set on legislative partisan balance, 2009-2017
Future analysis
Footnotes
- ↑ Democrats and Republicans both lost a net of one seat during Obama's presidency while independent candidates gained a net of two seats. The "22" figure in 2017 represents the 17 Democrats, three Republicans, and two independents that formed a bipartisan coalition. Democrats won 17 seats, Republicans won 21 seats, and independents won two seats in 2016.
- ↑ This list does not include any Republican trifectas created by winning a governorship while already controlling both chambers of the legislature. It also does not include trifectas that were created during Obama's presidency, but that did not exist in the aftermath of the 2016 general election at the latest.
- ↑ Following the 2008 election, six Republicans joined ten Democrats to form a bipartisan coalition. Ten Democrats and ten Republicans won election in 2008.
- ↑ Some 2016 state legislative races were still too close to call as of November 16, 2016.
- ↑ Politico, "Why Parties Should Hope They Lose the White House," December 1, 2014
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||
