2018 election analysis: State government trifectas

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2019 →

Updated 4:20pm EST, February 14, 2019

This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2018 midterm elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.

Democrats emerged from the 2018 elections with a net gain in state government trifectas—where one political party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house in a state's government. Republicans retain a net advantage of eight trifectas over Democrats. The new trifecta count stands at 14 Democratic, 22 Republican, and 14 divided.

Entering the 2018 midterm election, Republicans had a +14 state trifecta lead: of 34 states with trifectas, 26 were Republican and eight were Democratic. But after the votes were counted, Democrats increased their trifecta total with a net gain of six, and Republicans declined to 22 trifectas (a net loss of four). States with divided government (i.e., no trifecta for either major party) declined to 14.

This outcome is similar to the trifecta balance following the 2014 midterm election, which left Republicans with 24 trifectas, Democrats with 13, and 13 states with no trifecta advantage for either major party. After the 2010 midterms, 25 states had no trifectas, Republicans had nine, and Democrats had 16.

In two cases where Democrats gained trifectas, and in one case where Republicans lost a trifecta, Democrats won open gubernatorial races that had been vacated by Republican incumbents who could not seek re-election due to term limits.

The total number of trifectas—36—is almost in line with the 37 trifectas in 2013 and 2014, the most trifectas in recent history.

Change in state government trifectas, 2018 elections
Trifecta status	Before	After	Net
Democratic trifectas	8	14	+6
Republican trifectas	26	22	-4
Divided government	16	14	-2

The six Democratic flips from divided government to trifecta control in 2018 were in:

• Colorado: Democrats won control of the Colorado Senate.
• Illinois: Democrats won the governor’s office with businessman J.B. Pritzker (D) defeating incumbent Bruce Rauner (R).
• Maine: Democrats won control of the Maine Senate and took the governor’s office with Maine Attorney General Janet Mills (D) defeating businessman Shawn Moody (R) and state Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I). Incumbent Gov. Paul LePage (R) was term-limited, leaving the seat open.
• New Mexico: Democrats won the governor’s office with U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeating U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Incumbent Gov. Susana Martinez (R) was prevented by term limits from seeking a third term, leaving the seat open.
• New York: Democrats won control of the New York Senate.
• Nevada: Democrats won the governor’s office with Steve Sisolak (D) defeating Adam Laxalt (R).

In each of the four states where Republicans lost trifectas the balance of power became divided:

• Kansas: Democrats won the governor’s office with State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) defeating Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R). Incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who took office following former Gov. Sam Brownback's resignation in January 2018, ran for a full term but was defeated by Kobach in the August 7 primary, leaving the seat open.
• Michigan: Democrats won the governor’s office with former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeating Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette (R). Incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder (R) was term-limited, leaving the seat open.
• Wisconsin: Democrats won the governor’s office with Tony Evers (D) defeating incumbent Scott Walker (R).
• New Hampshire: Democrats won control of the House and Senate.

Overall, 10 total states saw a trifecta status change in some way.

• Colorado: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• Illinois: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• Kansas: Republican trifecta to divided government
• Maine: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• Michigan: Republican trifecta to divided government
• Nevada: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• New Hampshire: Republican trifecta to divided government
• New Mexico: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• New York: divided government to Democratic trifecta
• Wisconsin: Republican trifecta to divided government

The maps and charts below show the pre- and post-2018 election state government trifectas and the percentage of the population living under trifecta control.

Percent of the U.S. population living under trifectas as of Election Day 2018
	Total	Democratic trifectas	Republican trifectas	Divided governments
Population	325,025,206	67,128,116	156,080,642	101,816,448
Proportion (%)	100%	20.7%	48.0%	31.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of the U.S. population living under trifectas following the 2018 elections
	Total	Democratic trifectas	Republican trifectas	Divided governments
Population	325,025,206	111,808,708	136,066,930	77,149,568
Proportion (%)	100%	34.4%	41.9%	23.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

See also

• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
• 2018 election analysis: Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections
• 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of governors
• 2018 election analysis: State government triplexes
• 2018 election analysis: Control of the U.S. House
• 2018 election analysis: Control of the U.S. Senate
• 2018 election analysis: Was 2018 a wave election?