Economics
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook
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A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.